CMS·2025-05-14 10:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for JD Group with a target price of HKD 173 per share [4][6]. Core Insights - JD Group's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching CNY 301.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, driven by strong growth in retail and user acquisition [2][6]. - The retail revenue was CNY 263.8 billion, up 16.3% year-on-year, with a notable increase in operating profit and non-GAAP net profit [2][6]. - The report highlights the rapid development of JD's food delivery business, which is expected to synergize with its core e-commerce operations in the long term [2][6]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2023, JD Group's main revenue is projected at CNY 1,084.66 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4% [4][10]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2023 is estimated at CNY 35.2 billion, reflecting a 25% increase [4][10]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in revenue and profit, with projections for 2025 showing a revenue of CNY 1,309.18 billion and a non-GAAP net profit of CNY 46.576 billion [4][10]. User Growth and Market Position - JD Group experienced over 20% growth in active users during Q1 2025, attributed to improved user experience and the expansion of new business lines like JD Joy and food delivery [2][6]. - The report notes that the platform service revenue grew by 15.7% year-on-year, indicating a robust ecosystem development [2][6]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 15.9%, with an operating profit margin of 3.5%, both showing improvements compared to market expectations [2][6]. - The report projects that JD's retail operating profit will achieve double-digit growth year-on-year for 2025 [2][6]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of JD's food delivery business and its long-term integration with the e-commerce sector [2][6]. - The anticipated financial performance for 2025-2027 includes non-GAAP net profits of CNY 46.6 billion, CNY 52.2 billion, and CNY 56.8 billion respectively, reflecting a solid growth trajectory [4][6].