申万期货品种策略日报：贵金属-20250514

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and silver prices declined due to the fulfillment of the positive impact of temporary tariff relaxation but rebounded after the release of inflation data. The US April CPI annual rate decreased, but the month - on - month increase was 0.2%. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks led to a better - than - expected reduction in tax rates. The Fed remained on hold in the May interest - rate meeting, and it's difficult for the Fed to make a clear statement in the short term. Economic data starting from May will show a more obvious stagflation trend. Geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold - buying demand continue to provide support. Gold may enter a correction phase, and silver lacks upward momentum in the short term. However, gold will still be supported in the third quarter when the US economic recession is verified [5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The current prices of沪金2506,沪金2512,沪银2506, and沪银2512 are 763.08, 769.38, 8192.00, and 8260.00 respectively, with price drops of - 2.32, - 2.26, - 27.00, and - 24.00, and declines of - 0.30%, - 0.29%, - 0.33%, and - 0.29% [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of沪金2506,沪金2512,沪银2506, and沪银2512 are 112779, 27316, 445790, and 45686 respectively, and the open interests are 69033, 55794, 188738, and 122135 respectively [2] - Spot Premium and Discount: The spot premiums and discounts of沪金2506,沪金2512,沪银2506, and沪银2512 are 0.32, - 5.98, 22.00, and - 46.00 respectively [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and London Silver were 763.4, 752.62, and 32.89 respectively. The price increases were 5.25, 2.86, and 0.32, and the increases were 0.69%, 0.38%, and 0.98% respectively [2] - Price Spreads and Ratios: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2506,沪银2512 - 沪银2506, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 6.30, 68, 92.94, 7.31, and 7.77 respectively [2] 3.3 Inventory - Changes: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver changed by 0, 7231.00, 153359.33, and - 1238348 respectively [2] 3.4 Related Markets - Indices and Ratios: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P 500 index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 100.9827, 5886.55, 4.49, 66.6, and 7.1968 respectively, with changes of - 0.82%, 0.72%, 0.90%, 0.01%, and - 0.04% respectively [2] 3.5 Derivatives - ETF and CFTC Positions: The positions of SPDR Gold ETF, SLV Silver ETF, CFTC speculators' net position in silver, and CFTC speculators' net position in gold changed by 1.00, 1.00, 481, and - 1451 respectively [2] 3.6 News - US - Saudi Agreement: Saudi Arabia promised to invest $600 billion in the US, including $80 billion in high - tech companies and a nearly $142 billion arms sales agreement. The Saudi Crown Prince aims to increase the investment to $1 trillion [3] - US Tax Bill: The US House Ways and Means Committee announced a tax bill, planning to cut taxes by more than $4 trillion and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion in the next decade [3] - US Trade Negotiations: US Treasury Secretary downplayed the possibility of a quick trade agreement with the EU but was optimistic about agreements with Asian partners [3] - India's Response: India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US in response to US steel and aluminum tariffs, and the Indian Commerce Minister will visit the US to discuss tariff issues [3] - Central Bank Stances: The Bank of Japan is determined to maintain the rate - hike stance, and the European Central Bank may cut rates again by summer [4]