山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250514

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold and silver show different trends today, with Shanghai gold's main contract closing down 0.11% and Shanghai silver's main contract closing up 0.16%. [1] - In the short - term, the risk of Trump's trade war is partially realized, and trade agreements are reached in batches. The risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, and the Fed remains cautious about interest rate cuts. [1] - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump's reciprocal tariffs are implemented, and the US and China reach a temporary agreement to reduce tariffs, leading to a gradual increase in risk - aversion sentiment. There are still variables in geopolitical situations. [1] - Regarding the monetary attribute, the US consumer prices rose moderately in April, with the smallest annual increase in four years. The inflation outlook is still unclear under the background of tariffs. The market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 drops to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuate upwards. [1] - In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index rebounds with fluctuations, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will continue to show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short - term, fluctuate weakly in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. Recently, the net long position of CFTC silver has been reduced again, and the iShare silver ETF has slightly increased its position. The visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Price Data: Comex gold's main contract closed at $3254.50 per ounce, up $12.70 (0.39%) from the previous day and down $187.30 ( - 5.44%) from last week. London gold closed at $3227.95 per ounce, down $7.45 ( - 0.23%) from the previous day and down $163.50 ( - 4.82%) from last week. Shanghai gold's main contract closed at 761.72 yuan per gram, down 5.96 yuan ( - 0.78%) from the previous day and down 41.78 yuan ( - 5.20%) from last week. [2] - Position and Inventory Data: Comex gold's position is 452,414 lots (100 ounces per lot), down 12,937 lots ( - 2.78%) from last week. Shanghai gold's main contract position is 214,778 kilograms, up 197 kilograms (0.09%) from the previous day and up 26,470 kilograms (14.06%) from last week. The LBMA gold inventory is 8,536 tons, up 47 tons (0.56%) from last week. [2] - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [3] 3.2 Silver - Price Data: Comex silver's main contract closed at $33.09 per ounce, up $0.30 (0.90%) from the previous day and down $0.34 ( - 1.03%) from last week. London silver closed at $32.98 per ounce, up $0.96 (3.00%) from the previous day and down $0.05 ( - 0.14%) from last week. Shanghai silver's main contract closed at 8,195 yuan per kilogram, down 50 yuan ( - 0.61%) from the previous day and down 57 yuan ( - 0.69%) from last week. [5] - Position and Inventory Data: Comex silver's position is 140,261 lots (5000 ounces per lot), down 12,408 lots ( - 8.13%) from last week. Shanghai silver's main contract position is 4,211,520 kilograms, up 136,560 kilograms (3.35%) from the previous day and up 756,210 kilograms (21.89%) from last week. The total visible inventory is 41,026 tons, down 39 tons ( - 0.09%) from the previous day and down 24 tons ( - 0.06%) from last week. [5] - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [5] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - Fed - related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, down 0.25 percentage points. The discount rate is 4.50%, down 0.25 percentage points. The reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, down 0.25 percentage points. The Fed's total assets are $6,762.072 billion, up $2.22 billion (0.00%) from last week. [7] - US Economic Data: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.61%, up 0.07 (2.76%) from the previous day and up 0.10 (3.98%) from last week. The US dollar index is 100.97, down 0.82 ( - 0.81%) from the previous day and up 1.73 (1.75%) from last week. [7] - Other Data: The geopolitical risk index is 203.61, down 52.14 ( - 20.39%) from last week. The VIX index is 18.25, up 0.03 (0.16%) from the previous day and down 5.30 ( - 22.51%) from last week. The CRB commodity index is 300.53, up 5.00 (1.69%) from the previous day and up 10.77 (3.72%) from last week. [10]