工业硅：过剩格局难改，下游减产制压反弹，硅价弱势震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The current oversupply situation of industrial silicon is difficult to change in the short term. Downstream production cuts and high inventory suppress price rebounds, leading to weak and volatile silicon prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday, the industrial silicon market declined. Manufacturers' quotes were under pressure, and downstream demand had no new growth. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon was 9800 - 10100 yuan/ton. The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract si2506 was 8230, down 0.60%, with a single - day reduction of 9326 lots. It was shifting to the far - month contract, with a current position of 162,300 lots and a trading volume of 13.666 billion yuan [1] Supply Side - Recently, some silicon plants in the South are preparing to start furnaces, and some submerged arc furnaces will start from the end of this month to early next month. Some northern factories are struggling at the cost line. If the futures price drops below 8000, some small and medium - sized silicon plants are expected to cut production [1] Demand Side - Polysilicon prices are stable, with continuous news of production cuts and acquisitions. The current quotes for N - type dense material, N - type granular silicon, N - type re - feeding material, and N - type mixed material are 38 - 40 yuan/kg, 35 - 38 yuan/kg, 39 - 43 yuan/kg, and 36 - 38 yuan/kg respectively. The price of organic silicon DMC is stable, with a market - mainstream opening price reference of 11300 - 12000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Shandong's main monomer enterprises slightly lowered prices to boost sales, but downstream inquiry enthusiasm was low, and procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The overall demand release was limited, and market transactions weakened with strong bargaining tendencies. Aluminum alloy ingot prices were temporarily stable, the industry's operating rate decreased, and downstream enterprises mainly consumed pre - holiday orders with insufficient post - holiday stocking willingness [1] Inventory - On May 13th, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 66,494 lots, a decrease of 603 lots. Although the warehouse receipt inventory continued to decrease, the total industrial silicon inventory remained at a high level [1]