债市没有大幅回调基础

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has no basis for a significant correction. The short - end of the bond market is difficult to correct significantly due to the marginal loosening of the capital market in the second quarter, the release of fiscal deposits, and the weakening of entity credit. The long - end correction requires a fundamental trend recovery, but the current fundamentals are under pressure. Bank deposit rates may be cut, which will lead to a further decline in broad - spectrum interest rates and benefit treasury bonds through the price - comparison effect. It is recommended to actively allocate 10 - year treasury bonds when the yield is above 1.65% [1][7][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tariff Easing Leads to a Steepening of the Bond Market - On May 12, 2025, the "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks" was released. After that, the bond market adjusted, with a steepening trend. The long - end yields of 30Y and 10Y treasury bonds and national development bonds increased significantly, while the short - end adjustment was relatively controllable. The 10Y - 1Y treasury bond term spread returned to the levels of late March and early April this year [4][11]. 3.2 The Short - end of the Bond Market Generally Declines - The capital market has become marginally looser in the second quarter. The central bank's reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and open - market operations have led to a significant decline in capital prices. The DR007 central level has dropped from around 1.7% to around 1.5%. Short - term bond yields have also declined. There is still a static spread of 15 - 25bp between capital prices and short - end bond varieties, making it difficult for short - term bonds to correct significantly. - The stable capital market expectations make the rolling carry trade strategy highly certain in terms of returns, which may attract broad - based funds such as wealth management products and money market funds to maintain net purchases. From April 5 to May 12, wealth management products, other product types, and money market funds were the main buyers of inter - bank certificates of deposit, with cumulative net purchases of 219.4 billion, 277 billion, and 137.8 billion yuan respectively. Fund companies and rural commercial banks were the main buyers of treasury bonds within 1 year, with cumulative net purchases of 16.2 billion and 49.8 billion yuan respectively. - The release of fiscal deposits and the expected weakness of entity credit will protect the inter - bank liquidity. The high - growth fiscal deposits from February to March are expected to be released in the second quarter, which will increase excess reserves and base money. The consumption of excess reserves by broad - spectrum credit is expected to be limited, as bill prices have remained low since May, government bond net financing has declined since April, and the new special bond issuance plans for May and June are both less than 40 billion yuan. In addition, the concentrated repayment of implicit debts in the form of bank loans in the second quarter may lead to a passive contraction of credit [7][13][17]. 3.3 The Long - end Interest Rate May Still Have Fundamental Support - For the long - end to continue to correct and the yield curve to become steeper, a fundamental trend recovery is required. However, the current fundamentals are under pressure. - Exports are not the main influencing variable. China and the US are highly complementary in economic structure, resource endowment, and market demand. The resilience of exports to the US has always been high. In April, re - export trade promoted export resilience. The monthly year - on - year growth rate of China's exports was 8.1%. Although exports to the US dropped significantly to - 21%, exports to ASEAN, India, Africa, and Latin America maintained high growth rates. - Fundamental changes mainly depend on domestic factors. Since the second quarter, real interest rates have been under pressure due to price factors, which may put pressure on the fundamentals. Using the average of CPI and PPI to measure price levels and the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans of financial institutions to represent nominal interest rates, the real interest rate was relatively high at the end of the first quarter. In April, PPI continued to decline, and real interest rates were still under pressure. The recovery of the current fundamentals requires a significant reduction in real interest rates, and in an environment of price pressure, nominal interest rates need to be cut. - Bank deposit rates may be cut again, leading to a further decline in broad - spectrum interest rates. If the LPR is cut by 10bp, it is estimated that medium - and long - term deposit rates have a downward adjustment space of about 25bp. Considering factors such as tax, capital occupation, and credit risk, the attractiveness of treasury bonds will be more prominent [22][25][30].