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贵金属日报-20250514
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-05-14 10:54

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is experiencing fluctuations. The US announced that the annual rate of April CPI was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.4%, the lowest since February 2021, and the core CPI of 2.8% was flat with the expected and previous values. After the data release, the market reaction was mild, and the impact of tariffs has not been reflected yet [1]. - Recent trade and geopolitical negotiations have reduced the market's bets on a US economic recession, causing the gold price to give back its previous risk premium. The international gold price is in an adjustment process, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support at $3200 per ounce [1]. - The market generally expects the Fed to resume rate cuts in September. Although the current inflation pressure is not high, inflation may rise again in the next few months as the tariff effect emerges. This expectation is prompting more investors to use gold as a tool to hedge against inflation [2]. - Gold faces three key variables: the follow - up progress of China - US trade negotiations, the Fed's monetary policy direction, and global geopolitical risks [2]. Summary by Related Aspects CPI Data - The US April CPI annual rate was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.4%, and the core CPI was 2.8%, flat with the expected and previous values. The April CPI rose only 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3% [1][2]. Market Expectations - The market generally expects the Fed to resume rate cuts in September [2]. Gold Variables - Variables affecting gold include the follow - up progress of China - US trade negotiations, the Fed's monetary policy direction, and global geopolitical risks such as the evolution of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the India - Pakistan conflict [2]. Gold Price Movement - The international gold price is in an adjustment process, and attention should be paid to the support at $3200 per ounce [1].