京东（JD）：零售业务收入及利润增长展望超预期，或弥补部分外卖投入压力

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for JD US, with a target price adjusted from $62 to$ 50, indicating a potential upside of 34.2% from the current price of $37.25 [1][2][10]. Core Insights - JD US's retail business revenue and profit growth exceeded expectations in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 16% to RMB 301.1 billion. The growth was driven by a 17% increase in electronic products revenue and a 15% increase in daily necessities revenue [2][8]. - The company is experiencing healthy growth in active users, with a year-on-year increase of over 20%. The introduction of the food delivery service is still in a dynamic adjustment phase, but it is expected to partially offset the pressure from new business investments [2][7]. - The report highlights that the food delivery service has begun to enhance platform traffic, increasing user shopping frequency and cross-category consumption, which is anticipated to create long-term synergistic value within the platform ecosystem [2][8]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, JD US reported a gross profit margin increase of 0.6 percentage points, with adjusted net profit rising by 43% due to supply chain capabilities and economies of scale. The adjusted operating profit margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 4.9% [2][8]. - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been updated, with total revenue expected to reach RMB 1,313.16 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 13.3% [6][9]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected at RMB 46.21 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.5% [6][9]. Stock Performance - JD US's stock has shown a year-to-date change of 7.44%, with a 52-week high of$ 47.08 and a low of $24.95 [5][8]. - The report indicates that the stock's performance is expected to align positively with the broader market trends, as indicated by the "Buy" rating [3][10]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued double-digit growth in both revenue and profit for the retail business in Q2 2025 and throughout the year, supported by a healthy trend in user growth and engagement [2][8]. - The financial model updates suggest a stable outlook for JD US, with a focus on leveraging its supply chain and expanding its service offerings to enhance profitability [6][9].