Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-14 11:06Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.41% week-on-week to 65.10 million tons, maintaining a destocking trend with low inventory pressure. In May, the number of suspended PVC production capacities will gradually increase, which may relieve the future supply pressure. After the holiday, the downstream product enterprises resumed work, but the order performance was poor. The reduction of the US tariff rate on China is beneficial to the export of domestic PVC flooring. In terms of exports, the Indian market is affected by the uncertainty of BIS certification and anti-dumping duties and the rainy season; the US tariffs on Vietnam have not been alleviated, which may affect the export of Chinese PVC raw materials. In terms of cost, the prices of calcium carbide and ethylene have remained stable recently. In the short term, V2509 is expected to fluctuate, with support around 4890 and resistance around 5060 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4986 yuan/ton, up 149 yuan; the trading volume was 1,532,605 lots, up 584,462 lots; the open interest was 988,857 lots, down 93,652 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 763,073 lots, down 9,277 lots; the short position was 808,218 lots, down 46,678 lots; the net long position was -45,145 lots, up 37,401 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 5000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4704.23 yuan/ton, up 21.15 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 4940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4785.62 yuan/ton, up 31.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 785 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was -306 yuan/ton, down 149 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2823.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2618 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 538 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 567 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 162 US dollars/ton, down 34 US dollars; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 164 US dollars/ton, down 17 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 80.34% last week, up 1.01 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 81.33%, up 2.33 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 77.75%, down 2.44 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 409,800 tons, up 6,200 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region was 367,400 tons, up 5,600 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 42,400 tons, up 600 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.96, up 0.16. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.1370544 billion square meters, up 77.3344 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 110.0202 billion yuan, up 48.9131 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.43%, up 4.39 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.84%, up 1.99 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.7%, up 1.98 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.7%, up 1.95 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods originating from the United States. The tariff rate stipulated in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 of the Tariff Commission of the State Council was adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% tariff rate on the United States was suspended for 90 days; the tariff measures stipulated in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 were stopped. - According to Longzhong Information, on May 13, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in the Changzhou market remained stable compared with the previous day, ranging from 4620 to 4720 yuan/ton. V2509 rose 3.02% to close at 4986 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the PVC capacity utilization rate last week increased by 1.01% week - on - week to 80.34%. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate of PVC last week increased by 2.01% week - on - week to 45.99%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 5% to 48.13%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 2.5% to 35.9%. From May 3rd to 9th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.34%, up 1.01% from the previous period. As of May 8th, the PVC social inventory of the new (41 - company) sample decreased by 0.41% week - on - week to 65.10 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.71% [3].