海外债市系列之二：历史上的主权债务危机

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Sovereign debt crises occur when a country experiences weak economic growth and excessive government borrowing, especially a high proportion of foreign debt. When foreign exchange reserves are depleted, debt default occurs [1][77]. - The European debt crisis was a consequence of the 2008 global financial crisis, involving sovereign debt, banking, and euro crises. Its transmission chain included the global economic downturn after the 2008 sub - prime crisis, the impact on European tourism, the bursting of real - estate bubbles in Ireland and Spain, the deterioration of bank balance sheets, increased government debt from bank rescues and fiscal policies, and the spread of the crisis to core countries [1][11]. - The 1998 Russian sovereign debt crisis was a result of the failed transition from a planned economy to a market economy, revealing deep - seated contradictions in finance, currency, and governance [2][55]. - The direct trigger of the Latin American debt crisis was the Fed's monetary tightening policy, which significantly increased the debt burden of Latin American countries [2][67]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 European Debt Crisis 3.1.1 Crisis Origin (2009): Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis - In 2009, the new Greek government exposed the previous government's hidden fiscal deficit. The government debt rose, and investor panic increased. Greece's international rating was downgraded, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield rose from 4.3% to 6% in three months. Greece later sought external assistance [12]. 3.1.2 Crisis Spread (2010): From Greece to the "PIIGS" - Portugal: Affected by the sub - prime crisis, its economy was weak. Fiscal stimulus led to a sharp increase in government debt. Credit ratings were downgraded, and in 2011, it applied for external assistance [17][18]. - Ireland: After the sub - prime crisis, it faced a banking crisis and a burst real - estate bubble. The government's bank rescue measures led to a sharp increase in debt. It also sought external assistance in 2010 [23][25]. - Spain: The real - estate bubble burst, causing a banking crisis. Government rescue measures increased debt. Its credit rating outlook was downgraded [30]. - Italy: It had slow economic growth and high public debt. After the 2008 financial crisis, its economic situation worsened, and its debt problem attracted market attention. The credit rating outlook was downgraded [32][34]. 3.1.3 Crisis Deepening (2011 - 2012): Crisis Spreading to Core Countries, Eurozone at Risk of Disintegration - The banking sectors of France, Germany, and the UK were severely impacted. Credit ratings of banks and sovereigns were downgraded. The euro, national bonds, and stock markets fluctuated violently. Greece's stock and bond markets crashed [37][39][46]. 3.2 Russian Sovereign Debt Crisis - Crisis Background: After the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991, Russia's "shock therapy" economic reform failed. The economy was in trouble, with high fiscal deficits and a large amount of foreign debt [56][57]. - Crisis Trigger: The Asian financial crisis in 1997 led to a sharp drop in oil prices, reducing Russia's foreign exchange income. Frequent government changes also caused policy discontinuity [63]. - Crisis Review: In August 1998, Russia took measures such as suspending debt repayment, expanding the ruble exchange - rate floating range, and restricting foreign - exchange transactions [64]. 3.3 Latin American Debt Crisis - In 1982, Mexico announced a suspension of foreign - debt repayment due to exhausted foreign - exchange reserves, triggering the Latin American debt crisis. Other countries followed suit. The direct cause was the Fed's monetary tightening policy, which increased the debt burden of Latin American countries. For example, Mexico's foreign - debt scale increased significantly, and its interest - payment pressure soared. The drop in oil prices also affected its economy, and the peso depreciated sharply [67][71][73].