木浆成本下行，供需宽松，双胶纸价格承压

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The cost of wood pulp is declining, the supply and demand are loose, and the price of offset paper is under pressure. The offset printing paper is expected to be weakly adjusted next week [1][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - The 70g offset paper enterprise's tax - inclusive average price is 5,128.6 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decline of 3.0%. The supply side is differentiated with some paper machines being converted and new installations not fully producing. The demand side is weak with limited release of publishing tender orders. The cost of coniferous pulp futures has stopped falling but the weekly average price is still down, and the price of broad - leaf pulp is under pressure [5]. - The offset printing paper is expected to be weakly adjusted next week [7]. Core Logic Analysis - For offset paper, the industry's profitability is still low, factories are converting production, so the supply is stabilizing. The release of autumn publishing orders is slow, social orders are weak, terminal consumption lags behind expectations, and downstream printing factories' operating levels are low. The domestic port inventory of wood pulp is high and the import pulp market has abundant supply, so the wood pulp price is generally weak [6]. Weekly Data Tracking Double - Offset Paper - Supply: The capacity utilization rate of double - offset paper this cycle is 56.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points; the output is 201,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The industry's output shows a small month - on - month increase. The raw material price of pulp has fallen from a high, and the paper price has also declined, with the gross profit margin weakening [13]. - Inventory: The inventory of double - offset paper production enterprises this cycle is 1.139 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. The on - site inventory continues to increase slightly and is at a high level in recent years [16]. - Price: The domestic double - offset paper market is weakly sorted this cycle, and the transaction has not improved significantly. The 70g double - offset paper enterprise's tax - inclusive average price is 5,128.6 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decline of 3.0% [31]. Copperplate Paper - Supply: The capacity utilization rate of copperplate paper this cycle is 54.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5 percentage points; the output is 74,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%. The industry's output has decreased slightly this week. The pulp price has fallen from a high, and the copperplate paper's gross profit margin has increased [19]. - Inventory: The inventory of copperplate paper production enterprises this cycle is 332,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. The on - site inventory of copperplate paper continues to rebound [22]. - Price: The domestic copperplate paper market is weakly consolidated this cycle, and the transaction is scarce. The 157g copperplate paper enterprise's tax - inclusive average price is 5,875.0 yuan/ton, with the same price as last month [31]. Pulp Price - The spot tax - inclusive average price of coniferous pulp is 6,193 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%; the spot tax - inclusive average price of broad - leaf pulp is 4,129 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%; the spot tax - inclusive average price of natural pulp is 5,350 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%; the spot tax - inclusive average price of chemical mechanical pulp is 3,900 yuan/ton, the same as last month [36].