Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The convergence of the 9 - 1 spread, positive macro - factors, supply reduction from Thailand's delayed rubber tapping, and improved raw material procurement in the domestic tire industry after the holiday support this view [6]. - The domestic methanol futures price may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The narrowing of the 9 - 1 spread and the improved risk appetite in the methanol futures market due to positive macro - factors contribute to this prediction [6]. - The domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The improved risk appetite in the crude oil futures market under positive macro - factors supports this outlook [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 614,200 tons, a 0.9% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 4.3% and the general trade inventory by 0.38%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 2.17 percentage points and the outbound rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points. For general trade warehouses, the inbound rate decreased by 1.16 percentage points and the outbound rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 44.80%, a 14.74% week - on - week decline and a 4.40 percentage - point year - on - year decrease. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 58.40%, a week - on - week decline of 8.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decline of 17.80 percentage points [9]. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a 19% month - on - month decrease but a 9.4% increase from the same period last year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat performance [9]. - In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 8.9% and 9.8%. From January to April, the cumulative production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.9% and 10.8%. For the first time in history, the production and sales in the first four months exceeded 10 million [10]. Methanol - As the spring maintenance of domestic methanol plants ended, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output rebounded. As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.14%, a 3.75% week - on - week increase, a 4.16% month - on - month increase, and a 9.89% year - on - year increase. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 87,800 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 352,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 29.05%, a 0.22% week - on - week decrease; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 7.65%, a 0.21% week - on - week increase; the operating rate of acetic acid was 92.58%, a 6.78% week - on - week increase; the operating rate of MTBE was 46.41%, a 4.68% week - on - week decrease. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.73%, a 2.72 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease and a 4.43 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The futures profit of methanol to olefin was 289 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase and a 151 - yuan/ton month - on - month rebound [12]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 348,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 101,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 256,800 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 123,900 tons. As of the week of May 8, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 303,900 tons, a 7.23% week - on - week increase, a month - on - month decrease of 10,400 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 86,100 tons [12][14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 479, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 20. The US daily crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 98,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 267,000 barrels/day [15]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) was 438.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.032 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 21.152 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 24.961 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 740,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 399 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 580,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 89.0%, a 0.4 - percentage - point week - on - week increase, a 2.3 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, and a 0.50 - percentage - point year - on - year increase [15]. - Since May 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile and weak pattern. As of May 6, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil decreased slightly week - on - week, while the net long positions in Brent crude oil decreased significantly week - on - week [16]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,235 yuan/ton | +240 yuan/ton | - 385 yuan/ton | - 240 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,522 yuan/ton | +57 yuan/ton | 2,365 yuan/ton | +74 yuan/ton | +157 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 451.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 479.3 yuan/barrel | +8.8 yuan/barrel | - 27.5 yuan/barrel | - 9.0 yuan/barrel | [17] 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, spread, inventory, operating rate, and net position charts [18][30][42]
橡胶甲醇原油：宏观因子乐观，能化延续强势
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-05-14 11:23