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清源股份(603628):2024年报及2025年一季报点评:支架业务市场份额稳固,储能业务打造第二增长曲线

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [20]. Core Insights - The company's bracket business maintains a solid market share, while the energy storage business is being developed as a second growth curve [1][7]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 1.919 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.9% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 90 million yuan, down 46.7% year-on-year [7][8]. - The company is actively expanding its energy storage business and overseas markets, leveraging its existing distribution channels in distributed photovoltaic brackets [7]. Financial Performance Summary - 2024 Financials: Total revenue of 1,919 million yuan, net profit of 90 million yuan, and a gross margin of 21.26% [3][7]. - 2025 Projections: Expected revenue growth of 28.1% to 2,459 million yuan, with net profit projected to increase by 54.2% to 139 million yuan [3][7]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): Projected to rise from 0.33 yuan in 2024 to 0.51 yuan in 2025 [3][7]. - Valuation Metrics: The company is expected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24 in 2025, decreasing to 17 by 2027 [3][7]. Business Segment Insights - Bracket Business: Revenue from the bracket business in 2024 was 1.588 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 17.01%. The domestic market share increased, with domestic revenue reaching 710 million yuan [7]. - International Markets: The company maintains a leading market share in Australia and is expanding in Europe and Asia-Pacific regions, with significant growth in Thailand and the Philippines [7]. - Energy Storage Development: The company is launching its TNK series home energy storage systems in Australia and Southeast Asia, aiming to create a second growth curve [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company's bracket business is developing steadily, while the energy storage business is expected to become a significant growth driver. The target price is set at 15.23 yuan based on a 30x P/E ratio for 2025 [7].