油脂大涨、棉花劲升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Palm oil and soybean oil have risen significantly, but their upside may be limited due to increased supply. Cotton has strengthened due to the significant reduction in Sino - US bilateral tariffs, and the sugar has also risen strongly. Meanwhile, some products like apples are in a continuous decline [1][2][3][6][9][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Palm oil and soybean oil have risen sharply, driven by the surge in CBOT soybean oil. However, the supply of domestic palm oil and soybean oil is increasing, which may limit their upside. Cotton has risen strongly, supported by the reduction in Sino - US bilateral tariffs, and the orders of textile enterprises may increase in the future [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract 2509 has risen significantly, driven by the sharp increase in soybean oil. The proposed extension of the US 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy has boosted CBOT soybean oil. But the sharp increase in Malaysian palm oil production and inventory in April may limit its upside. Technically, it has turned stronger. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 8100 and resistance at 8210 [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main contract 2509 has risen strongly, driven by the sharp increase in external soybean oil. The proposed extension of the US 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy has boosted CBOT soybean oil. Although the tight supply pattern of domestic soybean oil will gradually ease, the follow - up increase may be limited. Technically, it has turned stronger. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 7812 and resistance at 8000 [3]. 3.2.3 Cotton - The cotton main contract 2509 has risen strongly, basically recovering the previous day's decline. The significant reduction in Sino - US bilateral tariffs has boosted the market sentiment. Although the textile industry is in the off - season, the short - term strategy is to hold a small number of long positions, with support at 13260 and resistance at 13600 [6]. 3.2.4 Sugar - The sugar main contract 2509 has risen strongly, driven by the sharp increase in external raw sugar futures prices. The decline in Brazilian sugar production and the strong domestic sugar sales and production data have provided upward momentum. Technically, it has turned stronger. The strategy is to hold a small number of short - term long positions, with support at 5885 and resistance at 5940 [9]. 3.2.5 Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2509 has oscillated and closed up, driven by the strength of US soybeans. However, the large - scale arrival of imported soybeans in China in May and the increase in supply may limit its upside. The strategy is to observe the resistance of the 10 - day moving average. If it is broken, close short positions; otherwise, continue to hold them, with support at 2865 and resistance at 2923 [10][12]. 3.2.6 Soybean No. 1 - The soybean No. 1 main contract 2507 has oscillated and closed up, showing a sideways pattern. The limited supply of domestic soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the weak downstream demand have affected the price. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 4127 and resistance at 4199 [13]. 3.2.7 Corn - The corn main contract 2507 has rebounded and closed up after two days of adjustment. The Sino - US tariff reduction has a limited impact on corn, and the insufficient supply of corn still supports the price. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 2338 and resistance at 2363 [15]. 3.2.8 Live Pigs - The live pig main contract 2509 has risen significantly, affected by the slowdown in the slaughter rhythm of the supply side. However, the high inventory of large pigs and the weak demand limit the upside. Technically, it has turned stronger. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14095 [18]. 3.2.9 Eggs - The egg main contract 2506 has first declined and then risen, with narrow - range oscillations. The slowdown in terminal replenishment and the high egg - laying hen inventory limit the upside. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 2900 and resistance at 2924 [19][21]. 3.2.10 Apples - The apple main contract 2510 has continued to decline. The high price in the producing area, the slowdown in sales, and the increase in substitute consumption have suppressed the price. The strategy is to hold a small number of short positions, with support at 7650 and resistance at 7770 [22].