2025年4月美国通胀数据点评：通胀表现温和，关税传导仍需时间

Inflation Data Summary - In April, the CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to +2.3%, while month-on-month it increased by +0.2% from a previous value of -0.1%[3] - The core CPI (excluding food and energy) remained stable year-on-year at 2.8%, with a month-on-month increase of +0.2% compared to +0.1% previously[4] - The April CPI data was below market expectations, primarily influenced by a further decline in energy prices[5] Food and Energy Prices - Food inflation month-on-month was -0.1%, down 0.5% from the previous value, while year-on-year it was 2.8%, a decrease of 0.2%[5] - Energy prices fell further to -3.5% year-on-year from -3.2% the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of +0.7%[5] - The significant drop in egg prices (-12.7%) contributed to a 1.6% decrease in the inflation of meat, poultry, fish, and eggs[5] Core CPI Insights - Core goods inflation year-on-year recorded 0.2%, up from 0.0% previously, while month-on-month inflation was 0.1% compared to -0.1%[6] - Core services inflation slightly decreased to 3.6% year-on-year from 3.7% in March, with a month-on-month increase to 0.3%[6] - The contribution rates to CPI from core services, core goods, food, and energy were +2.172%, +0.039%, +0.372%, and -0.273% respectively[6] Future Inflation Expectations - The CPI is expected to recover moderately, with a forecasted year-end CPI of approximately 3.28% for December 2025[6] - The probability of the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) exceeding 2.5% in the next 12 months has decreased significantly from 63.66% in March to 5.40% in April 2025[6] - Risks include potential secondary inflation, slower-than-expected economic progress, and geopolitical uncertainties[6]