美国4月CPI数据点评：通胀继续走低，关税影响暂未完全显现

Inflation Data - The US April CPI increased by 2.3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.34% and the previous value of 2.4%[1] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, compared to a previous decline of -0.1%[1] - Core CPI increased by 2.8% year-on-year, matching the previous value but above the expected 2.76%[1] Market Trends - The CPI data indicates a continuous decline in inflation, with three consecutive months falling below expectations, primarily due to decreases in energy and transportation service prices[2] - Despite the lower CPI, inflation expectations are rising, influenced by ongoing concerns over tariffs and supply chain issues stemming from trade policies[2] - The market anticipates two interest rate cuts in 2025, down from three previously expected, reflecting a cautious outlook on inflation trends[2] Economic Indicators - The April data shows a significant impact from tariffs, with a contraction in US imports and a rise in retail sales, indicating a potential imbalance in supply and demand that could accelerate price increases[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI has rebounded, suggesting that inflation pressures may soon increase again[2] - The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%, indicating resilience in the labor market despite a decline in manufacturing PMI[9] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts aligns with expectations, with a maximum anticipated cut of 25 basis points this year, potentially widening the policy interest rate gap between the US and China[3] - The easing of trade tensions and reduced tariff impacts may restore market confidence in the US economic outlook, potentially stabilizing the dollar's downward trend[3]