全国碳市场行情简报（2025年第74期）-20250514

Report Overview - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 74, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release Date: May 14, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan, both market rigid demand and speculative demand emerged, significantly increasing market trading enthusiasm, accelerating the release of mandatory circulation quotas, and the bottom of the CEA composite price in May may be raised to 60 - 65 yuan/ton [15] - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4] - In 2025, the remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [5] - If the selling nodes of surplus enterprises continue to be postponed, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height; if the single - day trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [6] Market Quotes Summary CEA Market - CEA22, 23, and 24 prices slightly rebounded. The listed volume was 19.46 million tons, and the bulk volume was 20.00 million tons [14] - CEA19 - 20 closed at 69.60 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change; CEA21 at 70.50 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change; CEA22 at 70.00 yuan/ton with a 0.57% change; CEA23 at 70.91 yuan/ton with a 0.58% change; CEA24 at 70.79 yuan/ton with a 0.41% change [8] - The total trading volume of CEA23 was 23.68 million tons, and that of CEA24 was 15.78 million tons. The total turnover of CEA19 - 20 was 16.7296 million yuan, and that of CEA22 was 11.1688 million yuan [8][9] CCER Market - The listed agreement trading volume was 0.11 million tons, and the average transaction price was 90.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.17%. The turnover was 9.91 - 175.11 million yuan [10][14]