国投期货能源日报-20250514

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly stated, but the analysis implies a complex trend [2] - Fuel oil: ★☆★, indicating a somewhat bullish trend with limited operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend with limited operability [1] - Asphalt: Not clearly stated, but the analysis shows a positive trend [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound of international oil prices is expected to continue, but the upside space is limited due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical negotiations [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong in the short - term, but its long - term strength is expected to be limited [2] - The asphalt market is expected to strengthen steadily due to increased supply and partial demand release [3] - The LPG market is in a low - level oscillation due to supply pressure [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued the corrective rebound after the unexpected downgrade of Sino - US tariffs, with the S006 contract rising 0.79% [2] - Demand is resilient, and global light distillate product inventories have hit new lows, leading to a recovery in overseas gasoline cracking and comprehensive refining profits [2] - Last week, US API gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased, while crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 4.287 million barrels [2] - The recent rebound of crude oil is expected to continue, but the upside space is not overly optimistic, with the oscillation range of Brent at $57 - 70 per barrel, WTI at $51 - 67 per barrel, and S0 at 430 - 510 yuan per barrel [2] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, LU stood out in the oil product futures, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widened [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil faces supply - side negatives under the OPEC+ production increase, and FU cracking is under pressure to fall from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has relatively low valuation and seasonal demand increase, but its long - term strength is limited due to factors such as the cancellation of the maintenance plan of the Nigerian Dangote refinery [2] Asphalt - The price of the asphalt main contract has returned above 3,500 yuan per ton, and the near - month contract is relatively strong [3] - Domestic asphalt supply has increased due to increased production by Sinopec refineries and the resumption or transfer of production by local refineries [3] - Demand in the northern market is gradually being released, while that in the southern market is suppressed by rainfall [3] - Refinery and trader inventories have slightly increased, but the overall inventory pressure is not large, and the asphalt market is expected to strengthen steadily [3] LPG - Middle - East exports have increased, and international market procurement is cautious, with import costs expected to decline [4] - The PDH gross profit is still at a low level, and the operating rate dropped below 60% last week. The possibility of resumption of production after the tariff reduction should be noted [4] - The domestic price has declined due to concentrated imports in the first half of May and off - season pressure, and the market is in a low - level oscillation under supply pressure [4]