国投期货化工日报-20250514

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] Group 2: Core Views - The methanol market faces risks of returning to fundamental trading after the macro - driven rally fades due to increased supply and decreased demand [2] - The urea market is expected to maintain range - bound operation with sufficient supply and limited influence from industrial and agricultural demand [3] - The polyolefin market shows positive sentiment driven by macro factors, but downstream buyers remain cautious [4] - The styrene market has temporarily alleviated supply - demand contradictions with expected production decline and order recovery [6] - The polyester market has potential risks such as weakening cash flow and possible production cuts, with different trends for each product [7] - The chlor - alkali market has different trends for PVC and caustic soda, with PVC potentially oscillating strongly and caustic soda facing high - level pressure in the medium term [8] - The glass and soda ash markets are expected to follow cost fluctuations, with glass having high inventory pressure and soda ash having supply - side changes [9] Group 3: Summaries by Product Methanol - Macro sentiment drives the methanol price up, but there are risks of returning to fundamentals due to increased domestic supply, expected import recovery, and decreased traditional downstream demand [2] Urea - The urea price declined slightly, with reduced inventory due to previous export rumors. Future supply is sufficient, and the market is expected to be range - bound [3] Polyolefin - Macro factors boost the polyolefin market, but downstream buyers are cautious. Polyethylene is in the off - season, while polypropylene has support from concentrated maintenance [4] Styrene - Macro factors and supply reduction from plant maintenance, along with expected order recovery, ease supply - demand contradictions [6] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are rising, but there are potential risks such as weakening cash flow and possible production cuts. Ethylene glycol supply is shrinking, and short - fiber and bottle - chip markets have their own characteristics [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC shows strong performance due to macro factors and export improvement, but faces supply pressure. Caustic soda is expected to oscillate in the short term and face high - level pressure in the medium term [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass has high inventory pressure and is expected to follow cost fluctuations. Soda ash supply is decreasing, and it is also expected to follow cost changes with long - term supply pressure [9]