美国45Z清洁燃料生产信贷修订案对植物油的影响

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The amendment to the 45Z clean fuel production credit is beneficial for the continuous development of the biodiesel and renewable diesel industries and the stable demand for vegetable oil raw materials [3]. - The policy is expected to boost the crushing demand for US soybeans and Canadian rapeseeds, as well as the industrial demand for local raw materials in the US, Canada, and Mexico. It is not conducive to the import demand for UCO, etc., and will make the prices of CBOT soybeans and CBOT soybeans stronger than those in other regions, and strengthen the international soybean - cotton price spread [6]. - Adjusting the greenhouse gas emissions in the life - cycle to exclude emissions from indirect land - use changes is expected to reduce the carbon emission coefficient of vegetable oils, obtain more subsidies, and support the price of CBOT soybeans [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Introduction of the Draft - On May 12, 2025, the House Ways and Means Committee and the House Energy and Commerce Committee released draft proposals for their respective parts of the reconciliation budget package, including amendments to the 45Z clean fuel production credit [3]. 2. Analysis of Amendment Clauses 2.1 Extension of 45Z Credit - The 45Z tax credit will be extended to the end of 2031, which was originally set to expire on December 31, 2027. This is beneficial for the continuous development of the biodiesel and renewable diesel industries and the stable demand for vegetable oil raw materials [3]. 2.2 Restriction of Tax Credit Eligibility - Tax credit eligibility is restricted to fuels made from raw materials produced or grown in the US, Mexico, and Canada. In 2024, vegetable oils were mainly sourced from local raw materials in the US, Canada, and Mexico, while animal fats and yellow greases still had raw materials from other regions. The policy is expected to increase the industrial demand for vegetable oils (rapeseed oil and soybean oil), compete with North American edible demand, and change the import structure of North American vegetable oils [4][5][6]. 2.3 Adjustment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Adjusting the life - cycle greenhouse gas emissions to exclude emissions from indirect land - use changes is expected to change the calculation method of greenhouse gas emissions in the 45Z credit life - cycle, reduce the carbon emission coefficient of vegetable oils, and obtain more subsidies. For example, the subsidy for making renewable diesel with soybean oil is estimated to increase from $0.23 per gallon to $0.52 per gallon [7].