美国CPI低于预期，关税传导尚待显性化

Inflation Data - The U.S. April CPI increased by 0.22% month-on-month, recovering from a -0.05% in March, but still below the expected 0.3%[1] - Core CPI rose from 0.06% in March to 0.24% in April, also lower than the expected 0.3%[1] - Year-on-year CPI for April was 2.3%, below the expected 2.4%[1] Tariff Impact - The anticipated impact of tariffs on inflation has not yet materialized, with prices for high-import items like clothing and furniture showing limited recovery[1] - The average tariff rate remains high at approximately 15-17%, despite recent reductions in U.S.-China tariffs[1] - The effect of tariffs on inflation may become more evident in May and June, particularly as retailers have 5-7 weeks of inventory[1] Federal Reserve Considerations - The Federal Reserve is likely to focus more on economic activity data, with employment figures in May and June being critical for future interest rate decisions[1] - Research indicates that tariffs implemented in 2018-2019 fully transmitted to consumer prices within two months[1] Core Inflation Components - Core services saw a month-on-month increase from 0.11% in March to 0.29% in April, driven largely by housing[4] - Core goods showed a slight recovery, with a month-on-month increase from -0.09% to 0.06%[4] - Energy prices saw a significant month-on-month increase of 0.67%, while food prices fell to -0.08%[4]