Huachuang Securities·2025-05-14 13:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Sichuan Chengyu [2][6] Core Views - The report emphasizes that there is still a significant expectation gap in the market regarding Sichuan Chengyu, despite its strong performance in revenue growth and cash dividends [6][8] - The analysis is based on four dimensions: asset quality, dividend capability, earnings growth certainty, and future growth potential [6][8] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Asset Quality - The company's road assets are strategically located, with toll revenue growth and profitability ranking among the industry leaders [9][13] - The overall profitability of the company's road assets is high, with a projected toll gross margin of 59.6% for 2024, second only to Guangdong Expressway and Anhui Expressway [21][24] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% in toll revenue over the past three years, indicating strong revenue resilience [15][16] 2. Dividend Capability - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to over 60% in 2023, maintaining a dividend yield of 5.05%, making it the only highway stock in A-shares with a yield above 5% [30][39] - The peak of capital expenditure may have passed, with a projected free cash flow of 650 million yuan in 2024, indicating a stronger and sustainable internal cash dividend capability [9][30] 3. Earnings Growth Certainty - Future earnings growth is expected to be driven by natural growth in traffic and toll revenue, with financial expenses likely to decrease significantly [9][10] - The company has a seven-year performance commitment for the second ring road, providing substantial growth support and profit elasticity in the medium to long term [10][11] 4. Growth Potential - The company is seen as undervalued in terms of growth potential, supported by the classic logic of "large group, small company" [10][11] - The integration of high-quality road resources with the support of the Shudao Group is ongoing, which is expected to enhance the company's market value [10][11] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.58 billion, 1.71 billion, and 1.84 billion yuan, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.52, 0.56, and 0.60 yuan [10][11] - The target price is set at 7.75 yuan for A-shares and 6.01 HKD for H-shares, indicating a potential upside of 35% and 39% respectively from current prices [10][11]