Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of $2.03 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with a net profit of $75.76 million, down 24.2% year-on-year. The manufacturing segment generated $1.33 billion in revenue, up 5.9% year-on-year, while the retail segment saw revenue of $700 million, down 6.5% year-on-year [1][2][4] Summary by Sections Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing segment's revenue reached $1.33 billion in Q1 2025, with a shipment volume of 61.9 million pairs, reflecting a 5.3% increase year-on-year. The average selling price (ASP) was $20.00, down 2.5% year-on-year. Revenue in April 2025 increased by 10.5% year-on-year, supported by strong orders from key clients like Adidas and Asics [2][3] - The capacity utilization rate was 91% in Q1 2025, up 3 percentage points year-on-year. However, uneven capacity loading and rising labor costs pressured profit margins, leading to a gross margin of 17.7%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] Retail Business - The retail segment reported revenue of $700 million in Q1 2025, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year. The number of offline stores decreased to 3,437, with same-store sales down 13.9% due to weak foot traffic and store closures. Conversely, online retail revenue grew by 20% year-on-year, with live-streaming sales surging by 230% [4] - The gross margin for the retail segment was 32.7%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 2.7%, down 0.5 percentage points [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $8.5 billion, $9.0 billion, and $9.6 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 6%, and 7%. The net profit is projected to be $410 million, $460 million, and $520 million for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 5%, 13%, and 12% [5][11]
裕元集团：制造订单充沛量价齐升，零售业务短期承压静待拐点-20250514