超长信用债探微跟踪：超长信用的痛点在哪里?

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The yield of ultra-long credit bonds continues to decline, and the number of outstanding ultra-long credit bonds with a yield below 2.2% has increased to 261 compared to last week [2][13]. - The subscription enthusiasm for ultra-long credit bonds has reached a high level. The supply of new ultra-long credit bonds in the first week after the holiday was still slow, with a weekly issuance volume of less than 9 billion. The average issuance rate of ultra-long industrial bonds has decreased marginally to 2.35%, while the average coupon rate of ultra-long urban investment bonds has continued to rise to 2.78% [3][21]. - The growth of the ultra-long credit bond index is weak. After the holiday, the ultra-long credit bond index had a slight catch-up increase, but the growth was still conservative, with the weekly increase of AA+ credit bonds over 10 years being only 0.37%. The scenario of rushing to buy ultra-long credit bonds is unlikely to occur, and the willingness of the market to extend the duration of credit bonds is weak [4][30]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Characteristics - The yield of ultra-long credit bonds continues to decline. Due to the early implementation of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts, long-term interest rates have rapidly declined to a low level, further pushing down the yield of ultra-long credit bonds. The number of outstanding ultra-long credit bonds with a yield below 2.2% has increased to 261 compared to last week [2][13]. 2. Primary Issuance Situation - The subscription enthusiasm for ultra-long credit bonds has reached a high level. The supply of new ultra-long credit bonds in the first week after the holiday was still slow, with a weekly issuance volume of less than 9 billion. The average issuance rate of ultra-long industrial bonds has decreased marginally to 2.35%, while the average coupon rate of ultra-long urban investment bonds has continued to rise to 2.78%. Driven by loose expectations and the low new issuance scale this week, the subscription enthusiasm for new ultra-long credit bonds has risen to a high level of over 70% since 2024 [3][21]. 3. Secondary Trading Performance - The growth of the ultra-long credit bond index is weak. After the holiday, the ultra-long credit bond index had a slight catch-up increase, but the growth was still conservative, with the weekly increase of AA+ credit bonds over 10 years being only 0.37% [30]. - The scenario of rushing to buy ultra-long credit bonds is unlikely to occur. As the yields of government bonds over 10 years and medium- and short-term coupon assets approach the lowest levels of the year, investors should theoretically shift part of their bond allocation focus to long-term credit bonds. However, judging from the trend of trading volume, the willingness of the market to extend the duration of credit bonds is weak. Although the weekly trading volume of ultra-long industrial bonds in the mainstream 7 - 10-year maturity has increased, the figure is still lower than that in late March, and the trading sentiment is not sufficient to support the ultra-long bond market [4][33]. - The proportion of new ultra-long credit bond trading in May has continued to rise compared to the previous period, with the figure exceeding 40% in the latest week. The low valuation deviation of ultra-long credit bonds in the latest week is also relatively conservative, and the increase in holdings is restricted by the low spread protection. The proportion of TKN transactions in ultra-long credit bonds this week has also dropped below 70% [4][37]. - In terms of investor structure, public funds have increased their holdings of 5 - 10-year credit bonds by more than 2.4 billion in a single week, and wealth management products have also increased their allocation of general long-term bonds within 10 years. However, insurance companies did not show any buying volume for ultra-long credit bonds this week, possibly shifting some positions to chase equity assets [4][40].