通胀支持美联储继续“等等再看”

Group 1: CPI Overview - The US CPI for April decreased slightly to 2.3% year-on-year, down from 2.4%, below Bloomberg's expectation of 2.4%[1] - Core CPI remained stable at 2.8%, matching Bloomberg's forecast[1] - CPI month-on-month increased by 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%[1] Group 2: Structural Analysis of CPI - Food prices fell from 0.4% to -0.1% month-on-month, reducing its contribution to CPI from 0.06 percentage points to -0.01[2] - Energy prices rose from -2.4% to 0.7%, contributing 0.04 percentage points to CPI, up from -0.15[2] - Core goods prices increased from -0.1% to 0.1%, contributing 0.01 percentage points to CPI, up from -0.02[3] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - The inflation performance supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach, as the economy shows no signs of stagflation[4] - The Fed is unlikely to cut rates until there is clear evidence of deteriorating employment or consumer spending data[5] - Current market expectations suggest the first rate cut may occur in September, with a total of two cuts anticipated for the year[5]