4月金融数据点评：社融增速仍在上行通道

Economic Overview - As of the end of April, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing (社融) stock rebounded to 8.7%, while the credit growth rate under the social financing measure fell to 7.1%[3] - In April, new social financing amounted to 1.2 trillion RMB, with RMB loans increasing by 280 billion RMB[5] Government Support - Government bonds continue to support the year-on-year increase in social financing, with new government bonds issued in April totaling 980 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.07 trillion RMB[9] - The issuance of replacement bonds in April approached 260 billion RMB, indicating that corporate medium-to-long-term loans also experienced a year-on-year increase when considering this factor[5] Future Projections - Despite potential pressure on credit due to tariff impacts, social financing and credit growth are expected to fluctuate upwards, with a possibility of the annual peak returning to over 9%[3] - The upcoming months may see improved macroeconomic data, particularly if progress is made in US-China tariff negotiations[5] Monetary and Fiscal Policy Tools - The regulatory body has deployed the first round of monetary policy tools to stabilize growth, emphasizing the importance of maintaining economic stability amid international trade tensions[6] - A robust monetary and fiscal toolbox is available, including further reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate reductions, and accelerated issuance of government bonds[6] Risks - Economic recovery may not meet expectations, potentially leading to weaker credit growth and social financing stock growth[31] - Uncertainties remain regarding the final implementation of tariff policies between China and the US, which could impact domestic economic conditions[31]