物产中大：制造业务高增长，估值有望修复-20250515

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Wuchan Zhongda with a target price of 6.41 CNY, based on expected growth in manufacturing and stabilization in supply chain business [5]. Core Views - Wuchan Zhongda's manufacturing business is expected to grow significantly, with an annualized growth rate of 26% from 2016 to 2024, driven by investments exceeding 6 billion CNY and acquisitions over 11 billion CNY [1][45]. - The supply chain business has seen a rise in market share from 0.5% in 2014 to 1.3% in 2024, although it faced a decline in gross profit by 30% due to falling commodity prices from 2022 to 2024 [2][3]. - The overall profitability of Wuchan Zhongda is anticipated to improve as the contribution from manufacturing increases, potentially leading to a higher profit growth center [3][4]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing segment is experiencing high growth, with revenue and gross profit both showing an annualized growth rate of 26% from 2016 to 2024, particularly in cable and tire businesses [1][45]. - Wuchan Zhongda plans to enhance its investment and acquisition activities in the manufacturing sector, aiming for a second growth curve [1][45]. Supply Chain Business - The supply chain business has shown a consistent increase in sales volume for key products like steel and chemicals, contributing to revenue growth despite a 35% decline in total profit due to falling commodity prices [2][3]. - The gross profit margin for the supply chain business has been declining, but a stabilization in commodity prices is expected to support profitability in the future [2][3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 3.33 billion CNY in 2025, with expected growth rates of 8%, 10%, and 17% for the following years [4]. - The target price of 6.41 CNY corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times, reflecting the anticipated rapid growth in profitability [4][5].