TGWC(600116) Southwest Securities·2025-05-15 00:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified for the next 6 months [1] Core Views - The company's short-term performance is impacted by impairment losses, but its comprehensive energy operations are stable [1] - The company reported a revenue of 10.32 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 309.71 million yuan, down 39.9% year-on-year [5][6] - The company’s power generation decreased by 16.4% to 21.0 billion kWh in 2024 due to reduced water inflow, while electricity sales volume increased by 1.9% to 142.5 billion kWh [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2024A: Revenue of 10,321.62 million yuan, net profit of 309.71 million yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 10,719.71 million yuan, net profit of 570.05 million yuan, with an EPS of 0.30 yuan [2][7] - 2026E: Revenue of 11,252.54 million yuan, net profit of 642.68 million yuan, with an EPS of 0.34 yuan [2][7] - 2027E: Revenue of 11,749.27 million yuan, net profit of 703.21 million yuan, with an EPS of 0.37 yuan [2][7] - Growth Rates: - Revenue growth rates are projected at -7.65% for 2024, 3.86% for 2025, 4.97% for 2026, and 4.41% for 2027 [2] - Net profit growth rates are projected at -39.94% for 2024, 84.06% for 2025, 12.74% for 2026, and 9.42% for 2027 [2] - Valuation Metrics: - PE ratios are projected at 43.0 for 2024, 23.3 for 2025, 20.7 for 2026, and 18.9 for 2027 [2] - PB ratios are projected at 1.18 for 2024, 1.13 for 2025, 1.10 for 2026, and 1.07 for 2027 [2] Business Segment Performance - Power Supply Business: - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 6,956 million yuan, with a growth rate of 0.7% [6] - Comprehensive Energy Business: - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 1,577 million yuan, with a growth rate of 13.5% [6] - The gross profit margin for comprehensive energy is projected to improve to 12.9% in 2025 [6] - Other Businesses: - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 1,788 million yuan, with a significant decline of 37.8% [6] Profitability and Efficiency - The company's sales gross margin and net margin for 2024 are projected at 10.3% and 2.8%, respectively [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 2.53% in 2024 to 5.29% in 2027 [2][7]