工业硅、多晶硅日评：工业硅上方压力较强，多晶硅波动加剧-20250515

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The silicon market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. The short - term trend of industrial silicon is expected to remain weak, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. For investment, it is recommended to short on rebounds. For polysilicon, the price fluctuates more sharply in the short - term, with a stable - to - rising trend, affected by factors such as delivery and supply - side reform news [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Information: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,000 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) remained flat at 10,000 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price rose 3.16% to 8,490 yuan/ton, and the basis (East China 553 - futures main) decreased by 260 yuan/ton to 510 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply: In April, due to production cuts by some silicon enterprises in Xinjiang, the overall industrial silicon output decreased to about 300,000 tons. In May, affected by the resumption of production in the southwest production area during the flat - water period and the ramping up of some new production capacities, the output is expected to increase steadily, but the increase is limited due to weak silicon prices [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. Domestic monomer enterprises' operating rates are expected to drop below 55% in May, reducing the demand for industrial silicon. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon - Price Information: N - type dense material dropped 1.32% to 37.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feeding material dropped 1.41% to 35 yuan/kg, polysilicon dense material dropped 1.45% to 34 yuan/kg, polysilicon cauliflower material dropped 1.59% to 31 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price rose 0.39% to 38,420 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain production cuts, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. The output is expected to remain within 100,000 tons [1]. - Demand: The strong - installation period is basically over, the photovoltaic market is weak, the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials has increased, the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have continued to decline, market demand has slowed down, and some component delivery prices are close to new lows, with weak market transactions [1]. Other Related Information - Automobile Industry: In April 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.251 million and 1.226 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 43.8% and 44.2%. From January to April 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 4.429 million and 4.3 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 48.3% and 46.2%. In April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 12.9% and 11.2% and year - on - year growth of 8.9% and 9.8%. From January to April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 12.9% and 10.8% [1]. - Organic Silicon Price: DMC remained flat at 11,450 yuan/ton, 107 glue dropped 1.21% to 12,250 yuan/ton, and silicone oil remained flat at 14,250 yuan/ton [1]. - Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Component Prices: Most prices remained flat, such as N - type 210mm at 1.30 yuan/piece, N - type 210R at 1.10 yuan/piece, etc. [1]