国泰君安期货所长早读-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Financial Data: In the first four months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In April, the social financing scale increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans of 280 billion yuan. At the end of April, M2 balance was 325.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%, and M1 balance was 109.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The M2 - M1 scissors - gap widened to 6.5 percentage points [8]. - Alumina: Near - end spot supply and demand are tight, with resonance in domestic and foreign markets. The price rose due to macro sentiment and trading factors. The short - term supply is tight, and the sustainability depends on the dynamic changes of operating capacity. In the medium - to - long - term, if the capacity event of converting aluminum hydroxide to alumina does not lead to industry - wide capacity regulation, the overall supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [10][11]. - Container Freight Index (European Line): Shipping companies' price hikes and the easing of Sino - US tariffs have boosted market sentiment. The short - term trend is strong. It is recommended to hold 6 - 8 and 10 - 12 reverse spreads [12]. - Palm Oil: Supported by the sentiment of US biodiesel, international oils are oscillating strongly within a range. The selling pressure from April to May in the producing areas has been realized, and the pricing expectations for the next stage still come from the复产 in the producing areas and the industrial demand for US soybean oil. The risks in the producing areas have not been fully released before July, but the international soybean oil has strong support, so palm oil rebounds strongly within the range. It is necessary to pay attention to the upward pressure from the loosening of its own supply - demand and the sustainability of the US soybean oil sentiment bubble [12][13]. - Lithium Carbonate: Affected by macro - sentiment, the fundamentals are still weak. The export demand is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. The downstream sentiment in the spot market is pessimistic, and the inventory is at a high level, suppressing price increases. The cost support is weakening, and the price rebound space is limited [14]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Metals - Gold and Silver: Gold broke below the support level, and silver oscillated downward. The trend intensity of both is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [17][22][25]. - Copper: The dollar first declined and then rebounded, restricting price increases. The trend intensity is 0, showing a neutral outlook [17][27][29]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum is running strongly, and alumina has rebounded significantly. The trend intensity of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. On May 14, Vietnam and Western Australia had alumina transactions [30][32]. - Zinc: There is short - term support. The trend intensity is 0, showing a neutral outlook [17][33][34]. - Lead: It is oscillating within a range. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][36][37]. - Tin: It is oscillating narrowly. The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [17][40][44]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: For nickel, news affects sentiment, and the fundamentals change little. For stainless steel, the social inventory is increasing marginally, and the cost expectation supports the price. The trend intensity of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][45][49]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward space is limited. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][50][53]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is affected by market sentiment, and polysilicon requires attention to spot price quotations. The trend intensity of both is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [17][54][57]. Energy and Chemicals - Iron Ore: Boosted by macro - expectations, it is oscillating widely. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][58]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Driven by macro - sentiment, the prices are rising. The trend intensity of both is 1, indicating a bullish outlook [17][60][62]. - Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy: Steel mills are inquiring about prices for procurement, and both are oscillating widely. The trend intensity of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][64][66]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke has initiated a first - round price cut and is oscillating widely. Coking coal is also oscillating widely. The trend intensity of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][68][72]. - Steam Coal: The coal mine inventory is increasing, and it is oscillating weakly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][73][75]. - Log: Boosted by macro - expectations, it is oscillating repeatedly [76]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: For palm oil, the pressure has been released, and there is support below. For soybean oil, affected by the hype of US biodiesel, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [20]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean: Soybean meal is oscillating, and soybean is also oscillating on the disk [20]. - Corn: It is oscillating strongly [20]. - Sugar: Domestic production is increasing continuously [20]. - Cotton: Driven by market optimism, cotton futures have rebounded [20]. - Egg: It is oscillating and adjusting [20]. - Pig: There is short - term gaming, with pre - trading of inventory reduction followed by re - inventory increase [20]. - Peanut: It is oscillating strongly [20].