AI探索系列深度（一）：国产AI玩具崛起，动静结合全年龄段需求爆发

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Better than the trend" [4] Core Insights - The traditional toy market is experiencing a decline due to demographic pressures, while AI advancements are driving industry upgrades. The global toy market is projected to grow at approximately 4% in 2024, but mature markets are seeing a decline in sales, with a projected drop of 0.6% in 12 monitored countries [1][31] - The rise of AI toys is expected to meet the demands of all age groups, expanding beyond the traditional focus on children under 14. The penetration rate of AI toys in China is anticipated to reach 29% by 2026, 41% by 2028, and 47% by 2030, with the market size potentially approaching 850 billion yuan by 2030 [2][3] Summary by Sections Demand Side - The global toy industry is facing challenges, with a significant decline in demand in mature markets due to aging populations and low birth rates. The traditional toy market is under pressure, with a decrease in the population of children aged 0-14 in China [1][18] - The past five years have seen the rise of trendy toys, with the Chinese trendy toy market surpassing 600 billion yuan in 2023, driven by IP collaborations. The penetration rate of trendy toys in China has increased from 24.5% in 2019 to 65.72% in 2024 [2][42] Supply Side - Domestic manufacturers of AI toys have significant advantages in manufacturing costs, research and development cycles, and supply chain completeness. The integration of AI with plush toys is expected to be a key driver for the growth of the AI toy industry [3][74] - The report highlights several key players in the AI toy market, including manufacturers like Gao Le Co., Ao Fei Entertainment, and Shi Feng Culture, as well as suppliers of AI models and interactive modules like Guang He Tong [4][69] Market Size Estimation - The report estimates that the AI toy market will see a rapid increase in penetration, similar to the growth experienced by trendy toys. The market size for AI toys is projected to reach 181 billion yuan by 2030 [3][35] Related Companies - Key companies mentioned include: - Ao Fei Entertainment: A core manufacturer of AI toys, integrating voice interaction and emotional companionship features [4][40] - Shi Feng Culture: Launching products like AI Magic Star, focusing on children's emotional perception [4][54] - Guang He Tong: Providing AI model solutions and continuously optimizing integrated modules [4][66]