PVC：短期偏强，后期仍有压力

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, PVC shows a relatively strong trend, but there will still be pressure in the later stage. Macro - level factors like the Sino - US phased reconciliation and short - term terminal product export rush are positive, but from a fundamental perspective, the structure of high production and high inventory of PVC is difficult to ease, and high - price transactions are slowing down with a significantly weakened basis [1]. - The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term. The high - production situation persists due to strong demand and high profits in the caustic soda market in 2025, the “subsidizing chlorine with alkali” model in the chlor - alkali industry, and upcoming new capacity investments, especially in June [2]. - High - inventory pressure persists, and export demand can only relieve it temporarily. In 2025, the PVC export market faces increased competition, affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. Although overseas restocking can reduce inventory quickly in the short term, the sustainability of exports is uncertain. Domestic demand related to real - estate downstream PVC products is still weak, and enterprises have low inventory - stocking willingness [2]. Summary by Relevant Contents PVC Fundamental Data - The 09 - contract futures price is 4986, the East China spot price is 4780, the basis is - 206, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 98 [1]. Spot Market - Domestic PVC spot prices have been raised. Positive macro - expectations and the rise of industrial products have boosted the market atmosphere, leading to a slight increase in the futures price. However, demand is cautious, high - price transactions have slowed down, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode in the short term. The market supply remains high, and the impact of policies on demand is yet to be observed. In the East China region, the ex - warehouse spot price of calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC is 4700 - 4880 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 4900 - 5200 yuan/ton [1]. Market Situation Analysis - Macro - level: The Sino - US phased reconciliation is positive, and short - term terminal product export rush supports the market [1]. - Fundamental level: Northwest chlor - alkali integration still has profits, and the structure of high production and high inventory of PVC is difficult to ease. High - price transactions are slowing down, and the basis has weakened significantly [1]. High - Production Pattern - In the first quarter of 2025, the maintenance volume of PVC was low, and the high - production pattern continued. The strong demand for caustic soda in 2025 supports high profits, and the chlor - alkali industry uses alkali to subsidize chlorine, increasing the difficulty of large - scale production cuts due to PVC losses. Moreover, there will be more new capacity investments, especially in June [2]. High - Inventory Pressure - In 2025, the PVC export market faces increased competition. Exports are affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. Although overseas restocking can quickly reduce inventory in the short term, the sustainability of exports is uncertain. Domestically, the demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises have low inventory - stocking willingness [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2][3]