Report Summary Key Points from the Fundamental Data - Futures data shows that RB2510 closed at 3,127 yuan/ton with a 38-yuan increase (1.23% up), and HC2510 closed at 3,267 yuan/ton with a 41-yuan increase (1.27% up). The trading volume of RB2510 was 2,134,942 lots, and its open interest decreased by 39,651 lots to 2,111,525 lots. HC2510 had a trading volume of 801,521 lots, and its open interest decreased by 2,694 lots to 1,351,894 lots [1]. - In the spot market, prices of both rebar and hot-rolled coil increased in major cities. For example, Shanghai rebar rose from 3,220 to 3,250 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot-rolled coil rose from 3,260 to 3,320 yuan/ton [1]. - Regarding price differences, the basis of RB2510 decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 123 yuan/ton, while the basis of HC2510 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 53 yuan/ton. Other spreads such as RB2510 - RB2601 and HC2510 - HC2601 also changed [1]. Key Points from the Macro and Industry News - On May 8, according to Steel Union's weekly data, rebar production decreased by 9.85 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 1.08 tons, and the total production of five major varieties decreased by 9.52 tons. Total inventory of rebar increased by 9.63 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 10.85 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 28.97 tons. Apparent demand for rebar decreased by 77.81 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 23.19 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties decreased by 125.66 tons [2]. - On May 14, it was reported that China's new RMB loans from January - April were 10.06 trillion yuan, lower than the estimate of 10.47 trillion yuan. At the end of April, the balance of local and foreign currency loans was 269.54 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The balance of RMB loans was 265.7 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. China's M2 money supply in April increased by 8% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The increment of social financing scale from January - April was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2][3]. Key Points from the Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is both 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly positive view according to the defined range [-2, 2] [3]. Core View The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil are generally rising due to the push of macro - sentiment. However, there are mixed signals in the industry data, with production, inventory, and apparent demand showing different trends, and the macro - economic data also presents a complex picture [1][2][3]. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report.
螺纹钢:宏观情绪推动,商品走势普涨
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-05-15 02:02