LPG：地缘冲突缓和，成本支撑走弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on LPG, indicating that geopolitical conflicts have eased and cost support has weakened [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - PG2506 had a closing price of 4,356 with a daily increase of 1.42% and a night - session closing price of 4,324 with a decrease of 0.73%. Its trading volume was 100,442 (up 1,966 from the previous day), and the open interest was 54,898 (down 7,767 from the previous day) [1] - PG2507 had a closing price of 4,266 with a daily increase of 1.64% and a night - session closing price of 4,237 with a decrease of 0.68%. Its trading volume was 32,889 (down 2,049 from the previous day), and the open interest was 47,936 (down 4,245 from the previous day) [1] - Spread Data: - The spread of Guangzhou domestic gas to the 06 contract was 694, compared to 755 the previous day - The spread of Guangzhou imported gas to the 06 contract was 724, compared to 775 the previous day [1] - Industrial Chain Price Data: - The PDH operating rate was 59.6% this week, down from 62.4% last week - The MTBE operating rate was 61.4% this week, up from 60.8% last week - The alkylation operating rate was 41.0% this week, down from 42.2% last week [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The LPG trend intensity is 0, with a value range of [-2, 2]. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [7] 3.3 Market Information - Saudi CP Expectations: On May 13, 2025, the expected price of propane for June was 577 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 557 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars/ton from the previous trading day. For July, the expected price of propane was 553 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 533 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [9] - Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans: Multiple companies, including Puyang Far East Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans with various start times and undetermined end times [8] - Domestic Refinery Device Maintenance Plans: Many refineries, such as Zhenghe Petrochemical, Panjin Haoya, etc., have device maintenance plans with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, and end times [10]