白糖：国内持续增产

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic sugar market is in a state of continuous production increase. The 24/25 and 25/26 domestic sugar production is expected to reach 1115 and 1120 million tons respectively, while consumption is 1580 and 1590 million tons respectively, with an import volume of 500 million tons for both seasons. The global sugar market in the 24/25 season is expected to face a supply shortage of 488 million tons [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The current price of raw sugar is 18.08 cents per pound, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1; the mainstream spot price is 6200 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 20; the futures main contract price is 5906 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 53. The 59 spread is 174 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 43; the 15 spread is 104 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 9; the mainstream spot basis is 294 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 33 [1]. Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information shows that Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress is slower year - on - year. The USDA expects Brazil's sugar production to increase by 2% in the 25/26 season. As of the end of April, India produced 2569 million tons of sugar in the 24/25 season. Brazil exported 185 million tons in March, a year - on - year decrease of 30.7%. China's imports of regular sugar, syrup, and premixed powder from January to March decreased significantly [1]. Domestic Market - The CAOC estimates that in the 24/25 season, domestic sugar production will be 1115 million tons, consumption will be 1580 million tons, and imports will be 500 million tons. In the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 1120 million tons, consumption 1590 million tons, and imports 500 million tons. As of the end of April in the 24/25 season, national sugar production reached 1111 million tons (+115 million tons), cumulative sales were 724 million tons (+150 million tons), and the cumulative sales rate was 65.2%. From January to March, China imported 15 million tons of sugar (-105 million tons) [1][2]. International Market - The ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 488 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously 251 million tons). As of May 1 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region decreased by 33 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 158 million tons (-100 million tons), and the cumulative MIX decreased by 1.71 percentage points. As of April 30 in the 24/25 season, India produced 2569 million tons of sugar (-577 million tons). As of April 9 in the 24/25 season, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 1005 million tons (+131 million tons) [2]. Trend Intensity - The sugar trend intensity is 0, with the value range from - 2 to 2, indicating a neutral view [3].