银河证券每日晨报-20250515

Key Insights - The report highlights the effective outcomes of the recent China-US trade talks, with a focus on the potential benefits for the optical communication and IoT sectors due to reduced tariffs [12][13] - The easing of tariff pressures is expected to restore confidence in the consumer electronics sector, particularly benefiting companies in the Apple supply chain and leading passive component manufacturers [15][17] - The construction machinery sector shows a mixed performance, with domestic excavator sales growth slowing in April, but overall positive trends in export growth and improved operational quality among leading manufacturers [19][22][23] Macro Insights - The US CPI data indicates a slight decline in inflation, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% in April, suggesting that tariff impacts have not yet significantly affected consumer prices [2][3] - High-frequency data shows some retail prices have begun to rise, indicating potential inflationary pressures in the latter half of 2025 [4][5] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions may be influenced by the delayed impacts of tariffs and inflation data, with expectations for rate cuts potentially occurring in September [6][5] Communication Sector - The deployment of 5G-A networks across 31 provinces in China is expected to enhance capacity, speed, latency, and reliability, paving the way for new applications and improved automation in traditional industries [8] - The focus on self-reliance and independence in technology development remains a priority, with the optical communication industry poised for growth despite tariff challenges [13] Electronics Sector - The recent trade agreement has led to a significant reduction in tariffs, providing a temporary reprieve for consumer electronics companies and potentially lowering production costs [15][16] - The market is witnessing a recovery in confidence, although competition is intensifying, necessitating innovation and quality improvements among domestic firms [16][17] Machinery Sector - April data shows a year-on-year increase in excavator sales, with domestic sales growing by 16.4% and exports by 19.3%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous months [19][22] - Leading manufacturers are experiencing improved profitability and operational quality, driven by cost control and reduced capital expenditure [22][23]