宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250515

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report Core View - The short - term view of gold 2508 is bearish, with a mid - term view of consolidation, and a short - term weakening outlook due to the easing of Sino - US relations which reduces the safe - haven demand and puts pressure on gold prices [1][3]. - For nickel 2506, the short - term view is bearish, the mid - term view is consolidation, and the intraday view is weakly consolidating. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the strong upstream nickel ore and weak downstream stainless steel market affect the price [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold (AU) - Price Performance: After the release of the Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement on May 12, the short - term safe - haven demand decreased, and gold prices were under pressure. The Shanghai gold stabilized and consolidated at the 760 level, corresponding to New York gold at the 3200 level. After the market, overseas gold prices tumbled, with New York gold breaking below the 3200 - dollar mark, and Shanghai gold opened lower at the 750 - yuan level in the night session and weakly consolidated [3]. - Policy Impact: The US revoked 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods on May 14, and modified the 34% reciprocal tariff measures on Chinese goods, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and 10% retained. This led to a significant change in the international situation, an obvious increase in market risk appetite, and a sharp decline in safe - haven demand, resulting in the expected short - term weak operation of gold prices [3]. Nickel (NI) - Price Movement: Nickel prices continued to rebound. Due to the RRR cut and interest rate cut in China last week and the Sino - US joint statement this week, non - ferrous metals with low inventories such as copper and aluminum trended upward, but nickel's performance was relatively weak among non - ferrous metals, indicating that the industrial fundamentals were suppressing the upward movement of nickel prices [5]. - Influencing Factors: The strong upstream nickel ore provides support for the futures price, while the weak downstream demand exerts pressure. The overall trend of nickel prices is greatly affected by industrial fundamentals. With a good macro - environment, nickel prices are expected to consolidate with an upward bias, and the pressure at the April high should be continuously monitored [5].