NORTHEAST SECURITIES·2025-05-15 02:25Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Better than the trend" [4] Core Insights - The traditional toy market is experiencing a decline due to demographic pressures, while AI advancements are driving industry upgrades. The global toy market is projected to grow at approximately 4% in 2024, but mature markets are seeing a decline in sales, with a 0.6% drop expected in 12 monitored countries [1][31] - The rise of AI toys is anticipated to replace static trend IP toys, with AI toys expected to penetrate the market at a rate comparable to that of trendy toys. By 2030, the domestic market for AI toys could approach 850 billion yuan [2][3] - The integration of AI with plush toys is seen as a significant opportunity, as plush toys can enhance emotional interaction capabilities. The domestic AI toy industry is expected to benefit from lower manufacturing costs and a complete supply chain [3][4] Summary by Sections Demand Side - The global toy industry is facing a slowdown, particularly in mature markets where population pressures are impacting demand. The traditional toy consumption is primarily driven by children under 14 years old, but demographic shifts are leading to a decline in this segment [1][18] - The Chinese toy market has seen a recovery post-pandemic, with a growth rate of approximately 6.67% in 2023, but the overall demand remains constrained due to a declining youth population [18][30] Supply Side - Domestic manufacturers have a significant advantage in the AI toy sector, with a complete industrial chain and lower costs compared to global competitors. The report highlights the potential for AI toys to enhance emotional interaction and educational capabilities [3][4] Market Size Estimation - The report estimates that the AI toy market will see a rapid increase in penetration, with projections of 29%, 41%, and 47% by 2026, 2028, and 2030 respectively. The overall market size for AI toys in China could reach nearly 850 billion yuan by 2030 [2][3] Related Companies - Key players in the AI toy manufacturing sector include Gaole Co., Aofei Entertainment, and Shifeng Culture, while major suppliers of AI models and interactive modules include Guanghetong [4]