宏观点评：4月信贷冲高回落，怎么看、怎么办？

Credit Data Summary - In April 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 280 billion, significantly lower than the previous month's 3.64 trillion and the market expectation of 764.4 billion, indicating a decrease of 450 billion year-on-year[1][3][6] - New social financing (社融) reached 1.16 trillion, which is 1.22 trillion higher year-on-year but below the expected 1.26 trillion, showing a seasonal improvement[2][8] - The growth rate of outstanding social financing increased to 8.7%, up from 8.4% in the previous month, marking the highest level in nearly a year[2][12] Structural Analysis - The structure of credit has deteriorated, particularly in the residential sector, with short-term loans decreasing for two consecutive months and mortgage loans turning negative again[2][5] - Corporate short-term loans decreased by 480 billion, while medium to long-term loans saw a year-on-year decline of 1.6 trillion, indicating weak corporate financing conditions[6][7] - Government bonds were the main support for social financing, with a significant increase of 1.07 trillion year-on-year, highlighting reliance on government debt issuance[3][8] Economic Outlook - The latest tariff adjustments are expected to alleviate economic pressure in Q2, but the overall impact on exports and GDP could be a reduction of 0.5-0.7 percentage points[4][8] - The real estate market shows signs of weakness, necessitating proactive policy measures rather than reactive ones[4][5] - Monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative, with expectations for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions later in the year due to ongoing economic pressures[2][4]