中辉期货螺纹钢早报-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel products, although sentiment is boosted, supply and demand remain loose. The market may return to fundamental trading later. After this week, demand may enter the seasonal off - season, while steel mills may maintain high hot - metal production driven by profits, leading to a more relaxed supply - demand situation and a risk of intensified supply - demand contradictions later [3][4]. - For iron ore, the demand side shows increasing hot - metal production, and steel enterprise profits will support high iron ore demand. The supply side has a double - drop in phased arrivals, resulting in a strong supply - demand structure. However, terminal demand may weaken marginally later, and the contradiction with high hot - metal production will gradually accumulate, pressuring the industrial fundamentals [7]. - For coking coal and coke, the daily hot - metal output remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period. But even with high hot - metal output and strong raw material demand, the weakness of coking coal and coke cannot be reversed. If hot - metal output peaks later, they will face greater pressure. Coke production is still high, and the supply - loose situation is hard to change. After continuous decline, they may enter a short - term volatile market [10]. - For ferroalloys, the long - term supply of manganese ore is recovering, and the port inventory is expected to gradually increase. The industrial fundamentals of ferromanganese still need further improvement. For ferrosilicon, the cost support has weakened, and although the supply is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, the inventory is still relatively high [16]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Steel Products 3.1.1 Rebar - Price Range: [3080, 3140] - Market Outlook: Short - term volatile, medium - term weakening. After the initial progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the market may return to fundamental trading. Demand may enter the seasonal off - season after this week, while steel mills may maintain high hot - metal production, leading to a more relaxed supply - demand situation and a risk of intensified supply - demand contradictions later [1][4]. - Price Data: Futures prices for rebar 01, 05, and 10 are 3155, 3060, and 3127 respectively, with changes of 53, 27, and 48. Spot prices in different regions such as Tangshan, Shanghai, and Hangzhou also show different degrees of change [2]. 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - Price Range: [3220, 3280] - Market Outlook: Short - term volatile, medium - term weakening. The supply of hot - rolled coils has increased slightly, demand has decreased significantly, and inventory has risen. Exports are still high but may decline later. Macro news has limited boosting effect [1][4]. - Price Data: Futures prices for hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 are 3283, 3265, and 3267 respectively, with corresponding changes. Spot prices in different regions also have different changes [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Price Range: [710, 760] - Market Outlook: Short - term single - side trading can be participated in, and inter - period positive spreads can be held. The demand side has increasing hot - metal production, and steel enterprise profits support high iron ore demand. The supply side has a double - drop in phased arrivals, resulting in a strong supply - demand structure. However, terminal demand may weaken marginally later, and the contradiction with high hot - metal production will gradually accumulate, pressuring the industrial fundamentals [1][7][8]. - Price Data: Futures prices for iron ore 01, 05, and 09 are 700, 796, and 737 respectively, with changes of 15, 18, and 23. Spot prices of different iron ore types such as PB powder, Yangdi powder, and BRBF powder also show changes. There are also data on spreads, basis, freight rates, and spot indices [6]. 3.3 Coke - Price Range: [1450, 1500] - Market Outlook: Volatile. The daily hot - metal output remains at a relatively high level, but the weakness of coke cannot be reversed. If hot - metal output peaks later, coke will face greater pressure. Coke production is still high, and the supply - loose situation is hard to change. After continuous decline, it may enter a short - term volatile market [1][10]. - Price Data: Futures prices for coke 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1508.0, 1587.5, and 1482.0 respectively, with corresponding changes. There are also data on basis, spot prices, and weekly data such as production capacity utilization, inventory, and profit [9]. 3.4 Coking Coal - Price Range: [870, 900] - Market Outlook: Volatile. The exchange warehouse receipts exceed 200,000 tons, and the delivery pressure makes the coking coal market re - evaluate the warehouse receipt cost. The production of coking coal is at a high level, and imports have increased recently, resulting in a relatively loose supply situation. Although the demand is good due to high hot - metal output, there is a risk of peaking. After continuous decline, it may enter a short - term bottom - consolidation market [1][13]. - Price Data: Futures prices for coking coal 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 911.0, 850.5, and 894.5 respectively, with corresponding changes. There are also data on basis, spot prices, and weekly data such as washing plant operating rate, inventory, and production [12]. 3.5 Ferroalloys 3.5.1 Ferromanganese - Price Range: [5750, 5950] - Market Outlook: Broad - range volatile. The long - term supply of manganese ore is recovering, and the port inventory is expected to gradually increase. The industrial fundamentals still need further improvement. The recent production - cut news has some impact, but the operation in low - cost areas such as Inner Mongolia should be focused on. The cost support of ferromanganese is insufficient, and the inventory pressure in delivery warehouses remains [1][16]. - Price Data: Futures prices for ferromanganese 01, 05, and 09 are 5918, 5790, and 5864 respectively, with changes of 50, 52, and 54. There are also data on spot prices, basis, and spreads [15]. 3.5.2 Ferrosilicon - Price Range: [5590, 5770] - Market Outlook: Volatile and weakening. The cost support has weakened as some semi - coke manufacturers have resumed production after the holiday, and the semi - coke market has been weak recently. Although the supply is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, the inventory is still relatively high. The market lacks obvious upward drivers, and prices are expected to move within a range [1][16]. - Price Data: Futures prices for ferrosilicon 01, 05, and 09 are 5652, 5570, and 5602 respectively, with changes of 76, 58, and 66. There are also data on spot prices, basis, and spreads [15].