Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view of treasury bond futures is range - bound. In the short - term, they will mainly be in a consolidation phase. In the medium - to - long - term, the basis for an upward trend is relatively solid with strong bottom support [4]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways to the downside". The reference view is "range - bound", and the core logic is that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, so it will mainly be in short - term sideways consolidation [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "sideways to the downside", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the reference view is "range - bound". In the medium - to - long - term, due to high external uncertainties, the policy will continue to boost domestic demand, the monetary environment will be supportive, and there is still an expectation of policy interest rate cuts, so the upward basis of treasury bond futures is firm. In the short - term, the easing of external tariff wars and the need to test the effects of the central bank's interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts lead to insufficient upward momentum. However, the upward movement of market interest rates is restricted by policy interest rates, so the downward space is limited [4].
宝城期货国债期货早报-20250515
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-05-15 02:42