Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term prices of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures are all expected to be oscillating on the strong side, but the medium - term trends are all oscillating. However, the continued rebound space for soybean meal futures prices is limited, and the long - term supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose, which still exerts pressure on long - term prices [5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Viewpoints: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating on the strong side, with the reference view also being oscillating on the strong side [5][6]. - Core Logic: The extension of the US Clean Fuel Tax Credit 45Z to December 31, 2031, may maintain the demand for soybean oil as a raw material in the renewable diesel industry. After the price difference between domestic and foreign soybeans is repaired, a linkage market emerges. Although the domestic oil mill operating rate is gradually recovering, the pressure - vehicle phenomenon still exists, and the short - term spot supply recovery rhythm is slow, which still supports the spot market. The long - term supply is expected to be loose, which still pressures long - term prices. The short - term soybean meal futures price is oscillating on the strong side, but the continued rebound space is limited [5]. - Influencing Factors: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, North American spring sowing weather, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6]. Palm Oil (P) - Viewpoints: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating on the strong side, with the reference view also being oscillating on the strong side [7]. - Core Logic: Indonesia will raise the special export tax on crude palm oil from 7.5% of the current reference price to 10% starting from May 17, which aims to raise more funds for the country's biodiesel blending and makes the implementation of B40 more likely. The Malaysian palm oil price has rebounded from the previous inventory pressure, boosting the domestic palm oil futures price. The short - term palm oil futures price is oscillating on the strong side [7]. - Influencing Factors: Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Oil - Viewpoints: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating on the strong side, with the reference view also being oscillating on the strong side [6]. - Influencing Factors: US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and channel stocking demand [6].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250515
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-05-15 02:41