中辉有色观点-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold price may experience short - term fluctuations and adjustments, but the space for significant further adjustment is limited in the long run, and it has high strategic allocation value [1]. - The silver price will likely have wide - range adjustments, and the trading should follow the previous range - bound approach [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to gradually take profit on long positions at high levels, and the long - term outlook remains positive [1]. - Zinc may rebound in the short term, but there are opportunities to go short in the long term due to increasing supply and weak demand [1]. - The lead price will have a short - term rebound [1]. - The tin price will face pressure during the rebound [1]. - The aluminum price will be relatively strong in the short term [1]. - The nickel price may rebound and then fall, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. - The industrial silicon price will rebound from a low level, with little change in the fundamentals [1]. - The lithium carbonate price will rebound from a low level in the short term and is still in the bottom - building stage in the long term [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - Market Performance: SHFE gold was at 761.72, down 0.78% from the previous level and 3.67% from last week; COMEX gold was at 3185, down 2.14% and 4.33% respectively. The spot prices also declined [2]. - Core Logic: With the upcoming Russia - Ukraine talks and reduced impact of tariff negotiations, the short - term upward momentum is weakened. In the long run, global asset allocation rebalancing and fiscal - monetary dual - easing trends will support gold [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: The short - term gold market may continue to adjust, and long - term investors should wait for stabilization before entering. Pay attention to the performance around 740 [4]. Silver - Market Performance: SHFE silver was at 8195, down 0.61% from the previous level and 0.69% from last week; COMEX silver was at 32, down 2.07% and 0.61% respectively [2]. - Core Logic: The financial and commodity attributes of silver interact, and it is affected by gold and base metals [1]. - Strategy Recommendation: It may continue to fluctuate within the range of [8020, 8250] in the short term [4]. Copper - Market Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 78650 yuan/ton, up 0.19% daily. The LME copper and COMEX copper prices had different changes, and the inventory also showed various trends [5]. - Core Logic: Overseas copper mine supply is troubled, and the copper concentrate processing fee has reached a new low. There are risks of a high - level decline in mid - to late May [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gradually take profit on previous long positions at high levels, beware of high - level decline risks. In the long term, be confident in the upward trend. The short - term Shanghai copper range is [78000, 79500], and the LME copper range is [9400, 9800] dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - Market Performance: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22800 yuan/ton, up 1.24% daily. The inventory decreased, and the spot price increased [8]. - Core Logic: In 2025, the zinc ore supply will be looser. The downstream demand peak season is ending, and the downstream enterprise's operating rate has declined [8]. - Strategy Recommendation: Lightly short at high levels near the upper integer - level resistance in the short term. In the long term, take opportunities to go short when the price rises. The Shanghai zinc range is [22500, 23000], and the LME zinc range is [2750, 2800] dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The LME aluminum closed at 2522.5 dollars/ton, up 1.16%; the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20240 yuan/ton, up 1.17%. The inventory decreased [10]. - Core Logic: The overseas trade environment has eased, and the domestic inventory has decreased. The demand of downstream processing enterprises has increased, but the terminal off - season is approaching [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: Look for short - term long opportunities for Shanghai aluminum at low levels, and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [19900 - 20600]. The alumina price will stabilize at a low level [11]. Nickel - Market Performance: The LME nickel closed at 15800 dollars/ton, up 0.35%; the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 125230 yuan/ton, up 1.11%. The stainless - steel price also increased [12]. - Core Logic: The overseas environment is favorable for downstream demand. The Philippine's potential mining ban and Indonesia's royalty increase support the nickel price. The domestic inventory is relatively high, and the stainless - steel inventory has increased [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: Temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The nickel main contract operating range is [121000 - 129000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract LC2507 was at 65,200 yuan/ton, up 3.13%. The trading volume decreased [14]. - Core Logic: With weak demand, lithium prices are testing cost support. Supply has not seen large - scale and continuous production cuts, and the second - quarter demand is average. Short - term rebound is due to improved market risk preference [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: It will rebound from a low level, with a range of [64500 - 66700] [15].