豆粕日报：主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: Short - term bearish oscillation. Supply will gradually increase, and although the short - term bearish pattern dominates, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after rebounds [1][3][4]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term decline. The short - term bearish pattern is dominant, and it is advisable to wait and see for long positions [1][8]. - Palm Oil: Short - term rebound. There is a short - term rebound due to factors such as Indonesia's tariff adjustment, but be cautious when going long [1][10]. - Cotton: Short - term rebound. The short - term trend is strong, but there is high pressure to fill the previous high gap [1][14]. - Red Dates: Narrow - range oscillation. Under the pressure of high old - crop inventory, the market focuses on old - date consumption, and the quarterly demand is expected to weaken [1][16]. - Live Pigs: Under pressure. There is a wide - range oscillation in the short term, and the idea of short - selling at high prices dominates in the future [1][19]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - International Situation: South American soybean production is basically determined, and U.S. soybean planting has started. Rainfall is expected to recover in the next 15 days. There may be insufficient rainfall in the Great Lakes region in May, but the outlook for June is good [1][3]. - Domestic Situation: Domestic port and oil - mill soybean inventories are continuously accumulating. As the operating rate rises, soybean meal supply will gradually ease and enter an inventory - building cycle. Feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs. The average monthly import from May to July is estimated to be over 10 million tons [1][3]. - Price and Market Data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,914 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,172.86 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - Inventory and Supply: As of May 9, coastal oil - mill rapeseed inventory decreased, while rapeseed meal inventory increased. From May to July, rapeseed imports are expected to decline significantly year - on - year, reducing long - term supply pressure [8]. - Price and Market Data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,509 yuan/ton, up 0.88% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,505.26 yuan/ton, up 0.17% [5]. Palm Oil - Inventory and Policy: As of May 9, the national key - area commercial inventory of palm oil decreased. Indonesia raised palm oil export tariffs on May 17 [10]. - Production and Market Data: From May 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased. The market expects both production and sales in Southeast Asia to increase in May, with the export growth rate lower than the production growth rate. The futures price of the main contract closed at 8,184 yuan/ton, up 2.89% from the previous day [9][10]. Cotton - International Situation: As of the week of May 11, the U.S. cotton planting rate was 28%. According to the USDA's May 25/26 annual forecast, global production will decrease, and consumption will increase. U.S. and Brazilian ending stocks will increase, while Chinese and Australian ending stocks will decrease [12]. - Domestic Situation: In 2025, China's intended cotton planting area increased by 1.5%. The industry and commerce inventories are at a high level and are being depleted. Demand is entering the off - season, and textile enterprises are replenishing inventory as needed [12][13]. - Price and Market Data: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 13,445 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the previous day. The domestic spot price increased by 1.32% to 14,389 yuan/ton [11][12]. Red Dates - Production and Inventory: Xinjiang's main - producing areas have normal jujube tree growth. The physical inventory of 36 sample points increased by 175 tons this week and is still higher than the same period last year [16]. - Market and Consumption: The sales area has continuous supply, and merchants mainly replenish inventory as needed. The pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking market is limited, and the demand for dried fruits is expected to weaken seasonally [16]. - Price and Market Data: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 9,095 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from the previous day [15]. Live Pigs - Supply and Inventory: In May, the planned slaughter of sample farms increased. In the medium - term, the third - quarter supply may increase. The long - term supply is affected by the inventory of breeding sows. The national sample - enterprise live - pig inventory increased slightly, and the slaughter volume increased by 4.45% [17][18]. - Price and Market Data: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 14,020 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [17].