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中辉期货日刊-20250515
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-05-15 02:56
  1. Overall Investment Ratings for Different Varieties - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Rebound [1] - PP: Rebound [1] - PVC: Rebound [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] - Soda ash: Sideways [1] - Methanol: Bearish/Expand ur - ma spread [1] - Urea: Bullish [1] - Asphalt: Pullback [1] 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions ease due to progress in US - Iran negotiations, leading to a decline in oil prices. Supply and demand factors, along with inventory changes, also influence the market. Long - term, supply is expected to be in excess, while short - term, holding bullish spread options is recommended [1][4][5]. LPG - Oil price pullbacks and reduced downstream开工率 result in a weak and sideways trend for LPG. The long - term trend is mainly influenced by upstream crude oil, and short - term, holding short positions is advised [1][7][8]. L - There is an expectation of rush exports for terminal plastic products. The market rebounds within a range, but the fundamental pattern is weak, with ample supply limiting the upside [1][11]. PP - Terminal products have an expectation of rush exports, and downstream inventory is concentrated. With tariff easing and oil price declines, PDH开工率 is expected to rise. However, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and the basis weakens, so the rebound is bearish [1][14]. PVC - The easing of Sino - US trade conflicts improves the export outlook for floor products. Low valuations support a short - term rebound, but high开工率 and weak domestic demand limit the upside [1][17]. PX - Planned plant maintenance eases supply pressure. Although demand - side plant maintenance is high and inventory is still relatively high, the fundamentals improve in May, and the short - term trend is bullish [1][19]. PTA/PR - High levels of plant maintenance relieve supply - side pressure. Downstream polyester开工率 remains high, and terminal weaving开工率 recovers. PTA inventory decreases, and the short - term trend is bullish [1][22]. Ethylene Glycol - Supply recovers, and imports exceed expectations despite low arrival volumes. Demand from the polyester sector is strong, and terminal weaving shows signs of improvement, so the short - term trend is bullish [1][26]. Glass - The easing of tariff policies and an increase in social financing growth are countered by lower spot prices and increased warehouse receipts. The market is in a low - level sideways pattern due to weak fundamentals [1][29]. Soda Ash - Although there is some improvement in market sentiment, the fundamentals are weak, with high开工率, ample supply, and high inventory levels. The market is in a sideways pattern [1][31]. Methanol - Supply pressure increases as previously shut - down plants resume production and imports are expected. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The market remains in a loose state, and the rebound is bearish [1][32]. Urea - Supply pressure persists as maintenance plants resume production. Agricultural demand is in a lull, but fertilizer exports are growing rapidly. The short - term trend is bullish, but short - selling opportunities should be watched for [1]. Asphalt - Oil price declines increase the pressure for asphalt to pull back. There are both bullish and bearish factors, such as changes in social inventory and开工率 [1]. 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight, international oil prices continued to decline, with WTI down 1.55%, Brent down 0.81%, and SC up 1.04% [3]. - Basic Logic: Geopolitical tensions ease as Iran is willing to destroy weapons - grade uranium in exchange for US sanctions relief. Iraq plans to reduce exports in May and June, and CPC exports in May are lower than in April. Global oil demand in 2025 is expected to be 1.037 billion barrels per day. Indian fuel demand in April decreased by 3.7%. US commercial crude and strategic reserves increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, oil prices will fluctuate between $55 - $65 due to factors such as trade wars and new energy impacts. In the short - term, hold bullish spread options, and focus on the range of SC [475 - 490] [5]. LPG - Market Review: On May 14, the PG main contract closed at 4,368 yuan/ton, up 1.16% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased by 30 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively [6]. - Basic Logic: Oil price upside weakens, and LPG fundamentals are bearish. After the reduction of tariffs on the US, import costs decrease. Downstream PDH开工率 drops, and port inventory rises [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, the trend is mainly linked to upstream crude oil and is bearish. Technically, the upward momentum is insufficient, and short positions should be held. Focus on the range of PG [4290 - 4350] [8]. L - Market Review: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1 yuan/ton day - on - day [10]. - Basic Logic: Short - term sales drive inventory reduction, but high pre - sale costs for traders and resistance from end - users to high - priced raw materials limit price increases. Terminal plastic products have an expectation of rush exports, and the market rebounds, but supply is ample [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: The rebound is bearish. Focus on the range of L [7300 - 7400] [11]. PP - Market Review: The L - PP09 spread increased by 53 yuan/ton day - on - day [13]. - Basic Logic: With the easing of tariff policies, the supply of polypropylene will be re - evaluated. The supply - demand contradiction will not be effectively resolved, and the market is expected to be in a state of oversupply. Terminal products have an expectation of rush exports, and downstream inventory is concentrated, but the basis weakens [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: The rebound is bearish. Focus on the range of PP [7100 - 7230] [14]. PVC - Market Review: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - Basic Logic: In January, a new 500,000 - ton plant of Xinpu Chemical was put into operation, and the utilization rate of production capacity is 79%. The decline in real estate completion area narrows, and downstream开工率 decreases seasonally. PVC exports from January to March 2025 increased by 56% year - on - year. The easing of Sino - US trade conflicts improves the export outlook for floor products, and low valuations support a short - term rebound [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: Participate in the short - term. Focus on the range of V [4950 - 5100] [17]. PX - Market Review: On May 9, the spot price of PX in East China was 6,500 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,472 yuan/ton (+68) [18]. - Basic Logic: PX plants are under planned maintenance, relieving supply pressure. There are also changes in supply and demand, inventory, and processing spreads. The fundamentals improve in May, and the short - term trend is bullish [19]. - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the range of PX [6820 - 7020] [19]. PTA/PR - Market Review: On May 9, the PTA price in East China was 4,720 yuan/ton (+110), and the TA09 contract closed at 4,582 yuan/ton (+36). The TA9 - 1 spread was 72 yuan/ton (+8), and the basis in East China was 138 yuan/ton (+74) [20][21]. - Basic Logic: PTA plants are under high - level maintenance, relieving supply pressure. Downstream polyester开工率 remains high, and terminal weaving开工率 recovers. PTA inventory decreases, and the short - term trend is bullish [22]. - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the range of TA [4820 - 4950] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: On May 9, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,300 yuan/ton (+20), and the EG09 contract closed at 4,218 yuan/ton (-4). The EG6 - 9 spread was 35 yuan/ton (+10), and the basis in East China was 82 yuan/ton (+24) [24][25]. - Basic Logic: Recent plant maintenance eases supply pressure. Arrival volumes are low, but imports exceed expectations. Demand from the polyester sector is strong, and terminal weaving shows signs of improvement [26]. - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the range of EG [4450 - 4600] [27]. Glass - Market Review: Spot prices decreased, the futures market stopped falling and rose, the basis narrowed, and warehouse receipts increased [28]. - Basic Logic: The easing of tariff policies and an increase in social financing growth are countered by lower spot prices and increased warehouse receipts. The market is in a low - level sideways pattern due to weak fundamentals [29]. - Strategy Recommendation: No specific strategy recommendation provided in the given text. Soda Ash - Market Review: The price of heavy soda ash increased, the futures market stopped falling and rose, the basis narrowed, warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecast remained unchanged [30]. - Basic Logic: Although some plants are under maintenance in May, the开工率 remains high, and the supply - demand imbalance persists. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory is at a high level [31]. - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the range of SA [1320 - 1350] [31]. Methanol - Market Review: On May 9, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,400 yuan/ton (+20), and the main 09 contract closed at 2,227 yuan/ton (+11). The basis in East China was 170 yuan/ton (-4), and the port basis was 173 yuan/ton (+9) [32]. - Basic Logic: Supply pressure increases as previously shut - down plants resume production and imports are expected. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The cost support is weak [32]. - Strategy Recommendation: The rebound is bearish. Focus on the range of MA [2310 - 2380] [33]. Urea - Market Review: No specific market review information provided in the given text. - Basic Logic: Supply pressure persists as maintenance plants resume production. Agricultural demand is in a lull, but fertilizer exports are growing rapidly. The cost fluctuates slightly, and the short - term trend is bullish [1]. - Strategy Recommendation: No specific strategy recommendation provided in the given text. Asphalt - Market Review: No specific market review information provided in the given text. - Basic Logic: Oil price declines increase the pressure for asphalt to pull back. There are both bullish and bearish factors, such as changes in social inventory and开工率 [1]. - Strategy Recommendation: No specific strategy recommendation provided in the given text.