铅锌日评：原料不足引发炼厂减产，铅价下方支撑较强，沪锌区间整理-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Core Views - For lead, due to unresolved raw material shortages and some secondary lead smelters reducing production, with demand in the off - season, cost support and weak demand are in a tug - of - war. Short - term lead prices are expected to be in wide - range consolidation, and macro uncertainties should be continuously monitored [1] - For zinc, with a stable and positive macro sentiment but weak fundamentals, short - term zinc prices are expected to be in wide - range consolidation. In the medium to long term, TC has room to rise, and the center of zinc prices may shift down. A strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended, and macro sentiment disturbances should be continuously monitored [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - Price and Market Data: SMM1 lead ingot average price remained flat at 16,750 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead futures main contract closed 0.21% lower at 16,935 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 21.04% to 32,590 lots, and the open interest increased by 0.75% to 30,725 lots. The LME 3 - month lead futures closed at 1,996.50 dollars/ton, up 0.38%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased by 0.58% to 8.48 [1] - Industry News: A small and medium - sized secondary lead smelter in Southwest China plans to resume production in late May after years of shutdown. A small secondary lead smelter in Central China postponed its resumption due to market observation and internal factors [1] - Fundamentals: Primary lead production was stable with a slight increase. In secondary lead, waste lead - acid battery prices rose, and recyclers had limited supplies. Some smelters cut or stopped production due to cost - price inversion, and the operating rate declined significantly. Demand was in the off - season, and downstream purchasing was weak [1] Zinc - Price and Market Data: SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 0.84% to 22,770 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc futures main contract closed 1.72% higher at 22,710 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 28.46% to 219,108 lots, and the open interest decreased by 6.33% to 104,941 lots. The LME 3 - month zinc futures closed at 2,765 dollars/ton, up 2.22%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 0.48% to 8.21 [1] - Industry News: Longxing Mine under Zijin Mining in Russia's Tuva Republic faces financial difficulties due to sanctions and limited Sino - Russian financial cooperation. It produced about 71,300 metal tons of zinc concentrate and about 4,750 metal tons of lead concentrate in 2024. Zhongse Co., Ltd. owns 5 mining rights and 3 exploration rights, and its Baiyinnuoer and Aobao zinc mines had certain production volumes in 2024 [1] - Fundamentals: Zinc smelters had sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees continued to rise. Production restrictions due to raw material shortages were weakened, and production and profits improved. After the May Day holiday, some enterprises resumed production, but terminal demand did not improve. Different downstream sectors had mixed performance, with uncertainties in export orders for zinc oxide due to anti - dumping investigations [1]