2025年4月份金融数据点评：如何看待4月社融与信贷“大劈叉”？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The April financial data reveals a significant divergence in social financing and credit, with new RMB loans at 280 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion, and a growth rate of 7.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the end of March. In contrast, the new social financing scale reached 1.16 trillion, an increase of 1.22 trillion year-on-year, with a growth rate of 8.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from March [4][29]. Summary by Sections Loan Data Analysis - In April, new RMB loans totaled 280 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion and a growth rate of 7.2%. The decline is attributed to multiple factors, including seasonal influences and external demand uncertainties due to trade frictions. The effective financing demand has not shown substantial recovery, and the pricing of new loans remains at historical lows [4][5]. - The total new RMB loans from January to April amounted to 1.01 trillion, showing a year-on-year stability in demand despite the challenges faced [4]. Social Financing Overview - The new social financing scale in April was 1.16 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 1.22 trillion and a growth rate of 8.7%. This marks a continued upward trend since the beginning of the year [29][32]. - Government bonds accounted for a significant portion of the new social financing, with 9.76 trillion issued in April, representing 84% of the total new financing, which is notably higher than the average for the same period in previous years [29][32]. Monetary Supply and Demand - In April, M2 growth was recorded at 8%, with M1 growth at 1.5%. The increase in M2 is attributed to a low base effect from the previous year, while M1's decline indicates a weakening in monetary activation [33][34]. - The report highlights a decrease in both resident and corporate deposits, with total RMB deposits down by 440 billion in April, reflecting ongoing challenges in the banking sector [36][39]. Corporate and Retail Loan Trends - Corporate loans showed relative stability, with new loans totaling 610 billion, despite a year-on-year decrease of 250 billion. The report notes that government investment continues to support credit expansion [16][17]. - Retail loans, however, faced seasonal declines, with a total reduction of 521.6 billion in April. The report indicates that mortgage loans are under significant pressure, with a notable decrease in new mortgage issuance [22][23].