长江期货棉纺策略日报-20250515

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Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - to - medium term due to positive policy signals, accelerated domestic commercial inventory reduction, and high consumption, but the long - term high - yield expectation restricts the upward range [1]. - PTA is expected to fluctuate strongly under the influence of positive macro factors, inventory reduction, and strong downstream polyester sales, with the upper price pressure level at 5000 yuan/ton [2][4]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate in the range of 4100 - 4250 yuan/ton due to cost support and expected reduction in port arrivals [4]. - Short - fiber prices have rebounded due to rising raw material prices and reduced supply, but the price is expected to be strong in the near term and weak in the long term considering the upcoming terminal off - season and the end of upstream device maintenance [5]. - Sugar is expected to oscillate at a high level. Internationally, the supply may become looser later, while domestically, there are both positive and negative factors in the market [6]. - Apples are expected to fluctuate strongly. The current market trading is stable, and the expected reduction in production and weather uncertainties support the price [6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic Key Information - The US adjusted tariffs on Chinese goods, revoking 91% of the additional tariffs and implementing a 34% reciprocal tariff measure, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and 10% retained. It also adjusted the ad - valorem tax rate for small Chinese parcels and canceled a planned increase in the specific tax [10]. - China suspended the inclusion of 28 US entities in the export control list and 17 US entities in the unreliable entity list for 90 days, and will strengthen the control of strategic mineral exports [10]. Fundamental Information Tracking of Each Variety Cotton - On May 14, the China Cotton Price Index (CC Index) was 14484 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the cotton yarn index (CY Index C32S) was 20520 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [10]. - The 2024/25 annual production of Indian cotton is expected to be 500.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5%, while imports are expected to increase by 64.5%. Consumption is expected to decrease by 5.2%, and exports are expected to decrease by 36.5%. The ending inventory is expected to decrease by 35.6% [10]. - In April 2025, Bangladesh's clothing export value was 2.394 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.44% and a month - on - month decrease of 30.61% [10]. PTA - As of the end of April, the average monthly spot price of PTA was 4439 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 401 yuan/ton. The average price difference between futures and spot in April was 88.89 yuan/ton, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase. The monthly processing fee was 344.47 yuan/ton, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase [13]. - Last week, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic PTA was 74.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.53% and a year - on - year increase of 1.25% [13]. Ethylene Glycol - The total capacity utilization rate of Chinese ethylene glycol was 61.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. The capacity utilization rate of integrated plants decreased by 2.06%, while that of coal - based ethylene glycol increased by 3.53% [14]. - The weekly output of Chinese ethylene glycol plants was 549,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12%. The overall supply increased slightly [14]. Short - fiber - As of the 8th, the weekly output of Chinese polyester short - fiber was 164,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.31%, and the average capacity utilization rate was 86.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26% [14]. - As of the 8th, the average polymerization cost of Chinese polyester short - fiber was 5315.65 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. The average cash flow in the industry was - 193.98 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 31.58% [14]. Sugar - The Green Pool expects the global sugar supply to have a small surplus of 1.15 million tons in the 2025/26 season, with production increasing by 5.3% and consumption increasing by 0.95% [13][14]. - In the second half of April, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased significantly compared with the same period last year [14][15]. - StoneX expects India's sugar production to be 32.3 million tons in the 2025/26 season [15]. Apple - As of May 7, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas in China was 2.2886 million tons, a significant decrease compared with the previous week and two weeks before the festival, and the current inventory is still at a low level in the past five years [16]. - In the Shandong and Shaanxi producing areas, the prices of different grades of apples are given [16].