每日投资策略-20250515

Macro Economic Overview - The US economy is experiencing a delay in the impact of tariffs, with April CPI inflation lower than market expectations. Concerns about inflation rebound persist, with food prices declining and energy prices recovering due to a smaller drop in gasoline prices [2] - Core CPI showed a slight rebound, with core goods rebounding modestly and core services, particularly hotel and airline ticket prices, seeing reduced declines. The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to rise initially before declining, while falling oil prices may partially offset tariff effects [2] - CPI and core CPI year-on-year growth rates are projected to rise from April's 2.3% and 2.8% to 3.1% and 3.3% in August, before slightly decreasing to 2.7% and 3.1% in December. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in June and July, with potential rate cuts in September and November or December [2] Company Analysis Tencent (700 HK) - Tencent reported 1Q25 results with total revenue growing 13% year-on-year to RMB 180 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 3%. Strong growth in gaming and marketing revenues contributed significantly [5] - Non-IFRS net profit increased by 22% year-on-year to RMB 61.3 billion, also surpassing consensus by 3%, driven by strong revenue performance and improved gross margins [5] - The target price for Tencent has been raised to HKD 660 from HKD 625, reflecting an optimistic outlook on AI development supporting growth across various business lines [5] JD.com (JD US) - JD.com reported 1Q25 revenue of RMB 301.1 billion, a 15.8% year-on-year increase, exceeding expectations by 3-4%. Non-GAAP net profit rose 43% year-on-year to RMB 12.8 billion, surpassing expectations by 18-23% [5] - The company is increasing investments in its food delivery business to drive nationwide expansion and enhance user engagement among high-quality customer segments [5] - The target price remains at USD 55 per ADS, with a slight increase in revenue forecasts but a 10% decrease in non-GAAP net profit projections for 2025 due to increased investment in the food delivery segment [5] Nuocheng Jianhua (9969 HK) - Nuocheng Jianhua reported strong 1Q25 results with sales of Obutin increasing by 89% year-on-year to RMB 311 million, primarily driven by growth in marginal zone lymphoma (MZL) [6] - The company has raised its sales growth target for Obutin from 30% to over 35% for FY25, supported by the anticipated contribution from MZL and the recent approval for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) [6] - The company holds RMB 7.8 billion in cash reserves, providing ample support for future R&D investments [6] Industry Focus - The report highlights a positive outlook for the automotive sector, with companies like Geely and Xpeng receiving "Buy" ratings and target price increases, indicating strong growth potential in the electric vehicle market [10] - The consumer discretionary sector, including companies like Anta Sports and Luckin Coffee, is also noted for its growth potential, with several companies maintaining "Buy" ratings and significant target price upside [10] - The healthcare sector, particularly companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics, is recognized for its robust pipeline and potential for significant market impact, with "Buy" ratings reflecting confidence in their growth trajectories [10]