国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250515

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to be broadly volatile, boosted by macro - expectations [2][4]. - The trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil are generally rising, driven by macro sentiment [2][6]. - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese markets are in wide - range fluctuations due to steel tender inquiries and price tests [2][10]. - The coke market is in wide - range fluctuations with the initiation of the first round of price cuts, and the coking coal market is also in wide - range fluctuations [2][13]. - The thermal coal market is expected to be weakly volatile due to the increase in coal mine inventory [2][17]. - The log market is expected to fluctuate repeatedly, boosted by macro expectations [2][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The previous day's futures closing price was 737.0 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan/ton or 3.15%. The previous day's positions increased by 30,334 hands. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) rose 16.0 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines (61.5%) rose 13.0 yuan/ton. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [4]. - Macro and Industry News: As of the end of April, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 325.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8% [4]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: For rebar RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,127 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton or 1.23%, and positions decreased by 39,651 hands. For hot - rolled coil HC2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,267 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton or 1.27%, and positions decreased by 2,694 hands. Spot prices in various regions generally increased [6]. - Macro and Industry News: From January to April, new RMB loans were 10.06 trillion yuan. The increase in social financing scale from January to April was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In April, the money supply M2 increased by 8% year - on - year, higher than market expectations [6][8]. - Trend Intensity: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a relatively strong trend [8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: For ferrosilicon 2507, the closing price was 5678 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan. For silicomanganese 2509, the closing price was 5864 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan. Spot prices of some products changed, and some basis and spread values also changed [10]. - Macro and Industry News: On May 14, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions and specifications changed. The procurement volume and price of a large steel group in Hebei for silicomanganese in May changed compared with April [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [12]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: For coking coal JM2509, the previous day's closing price was 894.5 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 2.76%. For coke J2509, the previous day's closing price was 1482 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 2.42%. Spot prices of some coking coal and coke products changed slightly, and basis and spread values also changed [13]. - Price and Position Information: The prices of coking coal in northern ports were reported. The positions of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 contracts of the top 20 members of the DCE decreased on May 14 [13][14][15]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [16]. Thermal Coal - Previous Day's Domestic Market: The ZC2506 contract had no trading the previous day, with an opening price of 931.6000 yuan/ton, a high of 931.6000 yuan/ton, a low of 840.0000 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 840.0000 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price [17]. - Fundamentals: The prices of thermal coal in southern ports and domestic production areas were reported. The positions of the top 20 members of the ZCE for the ZC2506 contract did not change on May 14 [18]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]. Log - Fundamentals: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of log's 2507, 2509, and 2511 contracts changed. Spot prices of various log products in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained mostly stable [21]. - Macro and Industry News: According to the joint statement of the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks, both sides promised to take a series of measures before May 14, 2025, including modifying and canceling tariffs on each other's goods and suspending or canceling non - tariff counter - measures [23]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [23].