美国经济：等待关税冲击显现

Economic Overview - The April CPI inflation in the U.S. was lower than market expectations, indicating that the impact of tariffs has not fully materialized[2] - CPI and core CPI year-on-year growth rates are expected to rise from 2.3% and 2.8% in April to 3.1% and 3.3% in August, before slightly declining to 2.7% and 3.1% in December[3] Tariff Impact - The inflationary impact of tariffs is projected to peak in the third quarter, with short-term cost-push effects outweighing demand contraction effects[3] - Core CPI showed a slight rebound, with core services growth declining to a near four-year low, indicating mixed inflationary pressures[6] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates steady in June and July, with potential rate cuts in September and again in November or December[2][3] - The demand contraction effects are expected to increase post-September, leading to a slowdown in the job market and a potential decline in inflation[3] Price Trends - Food prices have shown a significant drop, with household food prices decreasing from 0.5% to -0.4% in April, while energy prices rebounded slightly[6] - Core goods prices are expected to recover starting in May due to the gradual realization of tariff impacts on import prices[6]